R help - Nov 2012 - Best prediction to use to use for basic problem?

I have a rather basic set of data.  It is simply a variable that can be 0, 1 or
2 and its value over a series of time t0 - t9 like so:

y:	1	1	2	0	1	2	2	1	2	1
x:	t0	t1	t2	t3	t4	t5	t6	t7	t8	t9

I need to predict what the value of y will be at t10 through t13.

As you can see its rather basic.  I am rather new to solving these types of
problems so I am looking for some
good straight forward things to try.

My research into this (google, wiki's, etc) leads me to believe that perhaps
logistic regression would be good, since
I am predicting a categorical variable (0, 1, 2).  

I don't have much data for the formula to "learn" from, as I only
have 10 time slots and I need to predict the next 4.

Is logistic regression a good candidate or should I be looking at perhaps
something else?


Brian

1. This is not really an R question. I suggest you post to a
statistical list like stats.stackexchange.com instead.

2. I also suggest you consult a local statistician. You have a time
series with a categorical response. That's not so simple as you think
(and folks on stackexchange may provide you greater insight why). What
you don't know _can_ hurt you. Ignorance is _not_ bliss. (etc. with
other similar clich?s.)

Cheers,
Bert


On Sun, Nov 18, 2012 at 1:23 PM, Brian Feeny <bfeeny at mac.com>
wrote:
> I have a rather basic set of data.  It is simply a variable that can be 0,
1 or 2 and its value over a series of time t0 - t9 like so:
>
> y:      1       1       2       0       1       2       2       1       2  
1
> x:      t0      t1      t2      t3      t4      t5      t6      t7      t8 
t9
>
> I need to predict what the value of y will be at t10 through t13.
>
> As you can see its rather basic.  I am rather new to solving these types of
problems so I am looking for some
> good straight forward things to try.
>
> My research into this (google, wiki's, etc) leads me to believe that
perhaps logistic regression would be good, since
> I am predicting a categorical variable (0, 1, 2).
>
> I don't have much data for the formula to "learn" from, as I
only have 10 time slots and I need to predict the next 4.
>
> Is logistic regression a good candidate or should I be looking at perhaps
something else?
>
>
> Brian
>
> ______________________________________________
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> https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
> PLEASE do read the posting guide
http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.


-- 

Bert Gunter
Genentech Nonclinical Biostatistics

Internal Contact Info:
Phone: 467-7374
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