I am working on predicitng the scores for a days worth of matches of team sports. I have already collected data for the teams for the season we are concentrating on. I have been fitting poisson models for football games and have worked out what model is best and which predictor variables are most important. We would now like to predict the probability distribution for the scores for each team. eg. What is the probability of Manchester United vs Chelsea ending 1-1? -- View this message in context: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Prediciting-sports-team-scores-tp4303708p4303708.html Sent from the R help mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
On Jan 17, 2012, at 10:55 AM, kerry1912 wrote:> I am working on predicitng the scores for a days worth of matches of > team > sports. I have already collected data for the teams for the season > we are > concentrating on. > > I have been fitting poisson models for football games and have > worked out > what model is best and which predictor variables are most important. > > We would now like to predict the probability distribution for the > scores for > each team. eg. What is the probability of Manchester United vs Chelsea > ending 1-1?This certainly sounds like homework. Please read the relevant section in the Posting Guide.> > -- > View this message in context: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Prediciting-sports-team-scores-tp4303708p4303708.html > Sent from the R help mailing list archive at Nabble.com. > > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.David Winsemius, MD West Hartford, CT
Robin Lock at St Lawrence has done this for hockey, see http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/faq.html As I recall, he has a poisson regression model with parameters for offense and defense, and perhaps home 'field' advantage. I confess I am skeptical that this is the right approach for football - teams adjust their strategy and tactics as a function of the opponent and the current match score. Teams are trying to maximize the probability of getting a result, not the probability of scoring goals. The poisson model corresponds to a constant rate for scoring. albyn Quoting kerry1912 <kerry1912 at hotmail.com>:> I am working on predicitng the scores for a days worth of matches of team > sports. I have already collected data for the teams for the season we are > concentrating on. > > I have been fitting poisson models for football games and have worked out > what model is best and which predictor variables are most important. > > We would now like to predict the probability distribution for the scores for > each team. eg. What is the probability of Manchester United vs Chelsea > ending 1-1? > > -- > View this message in context: > http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Prediciting-sports-team-scores-tp4303708p4303708.html > Sent from the R help mailing list archive at Nabble.com. > > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. > >