WARNING: COMPLETELY OFF TOPIC -- Nothing to do with R. I thought readers of this list might enjoy the following. The link to the full article is at the bottom. I hope this is not "too" inappropriate. ------- Overconfidence in crime statistics doesn?t pay. In a new study, a team of criminologists makes the case that reported crime rates should acknowledge uncertainty in the data. The research demonstrates that rankings of cities as safer or more dangerous ? which can influence tourism and tax spending ? can be highly misleading. ?If you look at crime rates from year to year and you see a change, there?s a fundamental ambiguity in whether that change is caused by a real change in crime, a change in reporting or some of both,? says criminologist Robert Brame of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, a coauthor of the new study. ?Our position is we should own that. There?s ambiguity here and we should learn to deal with it.? --- Aside from, "Well, duhhh...," my reaction was: what other misleading "data" are being thrown around in the public domain whose uncertainty has been blithely ignored.... Don't answer that! http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/340450/title/Crime_numbers_may_mislead_ Cheers, Bert -- Bert Gunter Genentech Nonclinical Biostatistics Internal Contact Info: Phone: 467-7374 Website: http://pharmadevelopment.roche.com/index/pdb/pdb-functional-groups/pdb-biostatistics/pdb-ncb-home.htm
And you don't want to know about some of the other problems with the FBI?s Uniform Crime Reports. IRRC, they are fine for what the FBI intended but a lot of reseachers don't read the data descriptions as closely as they should. John Kane Kingston ON Canada> -----Original Message----- > From: gunter.berton at gene.com > Sent: Fri, 4 May 2012 09:49:15 -0700 > To: r-help at r-project.org > Subject: [R] Off-Topic: Crime Statistics Don't Pay > > WARNING: COMPLETELY OFF TOPIC -- Nothing to do with R. > > I thought readers of this list might enjoy the following. The link to > the full article is at the bottom. I hope this is not "too" > inappropriate. > > ------- > Overconfidence in crime statistics doesn?t pay. In a new study, a team > of criminologists makes the case that reported crime rates should > acknowledge uncertainty in the data. The research demonstrates that > rankings of cities as safer or more dangerous ? which can influence > tourism and tax spending ? can be highly misleading. > > ?If you look at crime rates from year to year and you see a change, > there?s a fundamental ambiguity in whether that change is caused by a > real change in crime, a change in reporting or some of both,? says > criminologist Robert Brame of the University of North Carolina at > Charlotte, a coauthor of the new study. ?Our position is we should own > that. There?s ambiguity here and we should learn to deal with it.? > --- > > Aside from, "Well, duhhh...," my reaction was: what other misleading > "data" are being thrown around in the public domain whose uncertainty > has been blithely ignored.... Don't answer that! > > http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/340450/title/Crime_numbers_may_mislead_ > > Cheers, > Bert > > -- > > Bert Gunter > Genentech Nonclinical Biostatistics > > Internal Contact Info: > Phone: 467-7374 > Website: > http://pharmadevelopment.roche.com/index/pdb/pdb-functional-groups/pdb-biostatistics/pdb-ncb-home.htm > > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide > http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.____________________________________________________________ FREE 3D MARINE AQUARIUM SCREENSAVER - Watch dolphins, sharks & orcas on your desktop!
And you don't want to know about some of the other problems with the FBI?s Uniform Crime Reports. IRRC, they are fine for what the FBI intended but a lot of reseachers don't read the data descriptions as closely as they should. John Kane Kingston ON Canada> -----Original Message----- > From: gunter.berton at gene.com > Sent: Fri, 4 May 2012 09:49:15 -0700 > To: r-help at r-project.org > Subject: [R] Off-Topic: Crime Statistics Don't Pay > > WARNING: COMPLETELY OFF TOPIC -- Nothing to do with R. > > I thought readers of this list might enjoy the following. The link to > the full article is at the bottom. I hope this is not "too" > inappropriate. > > ------- > Overconfidence in crime statistics doesn?t pay. In a new study, a team > of criminologists makes the case that reported crime rates should > acknowledge uncertainty in the data. The research demonstrates that > rankings of cities as safer or more dangerous ? which can influence > tourism and tax spending ? can be highly misleading. > > ?If you look at crime rates from year to year and you see a change, > there?s a fundamental ambiguity in whether that change is caused by a > real change in crime, a change in reporting or some of both,? says > criminologist Robert Brame of the University of North Carolina at > Charlotte, a coauthor of the new study. ?Our position is we should own > that. There?s ambiguity here and we should learn to deal with it.? > --- > > Aside from, "Well, duhhh...," my reaction was: what other misleading > "data" are being thrown around in the public domain whose uncertainty > has been blithely ignored.... Don't answer that! > > http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/340450/title/Crime_numbers_may_mislead_ > > Cheers, > Bert > > -- > > Bert Gunter > Genentech Nonclinical Biostatistics > > Internal Contact Info: > Phone: 467-7374 > Website: > http://pharmadevelopment.roche.com/index/pdb/pdb-functional-groups/pdb-biostatistics/pdb-ncb-home.htm > > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide > http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.____________________________________________________________ GET FREE SMILEYS FOR YOUR IM & EMAIL - Learn more at http://www.inbox.com/smileys Works with AIM?, MSN? Messenger, Yahoo!? Messenger, ICQ?, Google Talk? and most webmails