I am fitting a cox PH model w/ 2 predictors, x1 = 0/1 treatment variable and x2=continuous variable. I am using natural splines (ns) to model the effect of x2. I would like to examine the estimated effect of x2 on the hazard. I have tried various approaches (below; let model.fit= fitted model using coxph in survival library): 1. The simplest method appears to be using termplot(model.fit). This appears to work fine as long as I include the treatment variable in the model. However, without the treatment effect in the model termplot returns a "?" prompt without plotting the effect of x2. This happens whenever I consider any model containing only one predictor variable modeled using ns(). Any suggestions? Also, I am presuming that these plots indicate the effect of x2 averaged over the effect of x1 (is this correct?). Ultimately, I would like to be able to produce similar plots for both x1=0 and x1=1. 2. Using predict(model.fit, newdata, type="lp", safe=T)...as far as I can tell, this does not appear to give results that are consistent w/ termplot. For my model, the effect of x1 is VERY small (not statistically significant) and when I overlay the results w/ those produced by termplot (using "lines") they do not line up at all: # Predict linear predictor vs. x2 for x1 =1 newdata<-data.frame(x1=rep(1,60), x2=seq(0,30, length=60)) newpred<-predict(model.fit, newdata, type="lp", safe=T) termplot(model.fit) lines(newdata[,2], newpred) Interestingly enough, predict(model.fit) does give back the correct values for the actual data set used in the fitting: max(predict(model.fit)-model.fit$linear.predictors)=0. Am I missing something here? 3. Using the fitted coeficients: # Coefficients fitc<-coef(model.fit) # Predictors basis <- ns(x2, df = 3) ; # df= 3 were used to fit the model newx2<- seq(0,30,length=60) # new data in the coords of the basis and x1=1 for all obs newdata2<-cbind(rep(1,60),predict(basis, newx2)) newpred<-newdata2%*%fitc termplot(model.fit, ylim=c(0,3)) lines(newx2, newpred) This method gives predictions that appear to be proportional to the results in termplot - but all predicted values are higher. I am missing something here? Ideally, I would like to use this method as it appears the most flexible -allowing one to obtain the linear predictors for various combinations of x1 and x2. 4. Using Frank Harrell's Design library and the cph function and plot.Design. This appears to work - giving results that agree w/ termplot (although the results are slightly different because of the different basis functions used). However, I am more comfortable (currently) using the coxph function than cph and have had problems w/ cph when trying to fit more complicated (conditional) models w/ multiple obs per subject. Any help would be greatly appreciated. I am using R version 1.7.1 on Windows 2000. I would be glad to share the data set and code directly if it would be helpful. John John Fieberg, Ph.D. Wildlife Biometrician, MN DNR 5463-C W. Broadway Forest Lake, MN 55434 Phone: (651) 296-2704