I want to forecaste the call number everyday for a call-center. Now I have removed the influence of the fluctuation with some method, so only thing left is to analyze the trend of the call number every day. I have thought of two ways: regression and HoltWinters smooth. But when I use regression, I find some day's call number will bcome negative, which is obviously unreasonabe. If I use HoltWinters smooth ,I let the gamma parameter equal to 0 because I needn't analyze the seasonal fact, but the result shows that the increasing trend is too big. I adjust the parameter alpha and beta ,which makes the result better,but I don't know if it's right. In this case of situation,which way is better? Or is there another appropriate method?
a) This is the *R-help* mailing list. If you want others to make your data analyses, there are consultants around ... b) If you still want help from the list, follow the posting guide and provide relevant information such as some insight to your data. Not many of us are clairvoyants and hence most people won't know out of air which method is best. Uwe Ligges minben wrote:> I want to forecaste the call number everyday for a call-center. Now I > have removed the influence of the fluctuation with some method, so > only thing left is to analyze the trend of the call number every day. > I have thought of two ways: regression and HoltWinters smooth. But > when I use regression, I find some day's call number will bcome > negative, which is obviously unreasonabe. If I use HoltWinters > smooth ,I let the gamma parameter equal to 0 because I needn't analyze > the seasonal fact, but the result shows that the increasing trend is > too big. I adjust the parameter alpha and beta ,which makes the result > better,but I don't know if it's right. In this case of situation,which > way is better? Or is there another appropriate method? > > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
The forecast package has a number of forecasting methods you could try. On Thu, Apr 2, 2009 at 3:17 AM, minben <minbenh at gmail.com> wrote:> I want to forecaste the call number everyday for a call-center. Now I > have removed the influence of the fluctuation with some method, so > only thing left is to analyze the trend of the call number every day. > I have thought of two ways: regression and HoltWinters smooth. But > when I use regression, I find some day's call number will bcome > negative, which is obviously unreasonabe. If I use HoltWinters > smooth ,I let the gamma parameter equal to 0 because I needn't analyze > the seasonal fact, but the result shows that the increasing trend is > too big. I adjust the parameter alpha and beta ,which makes the result > better,but I don't know if it's right. In this case of situation,which > way is better? Or is there another appropriate ?method? > > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. >