R help - Sep 2003 - 2 time dependend states and probability transition matrix

Hi,

have got anybody experience or a starting
point for me, how i can program a function 
which calculate me a probability transition matrix with a data.frame and two
states.

I have some independend variable and  a class variable 
for two states - in example one from Jan2003 and the same variables from
June2003.

Now i  would like to calculate the probability that PERSON X change 
from classA to classB  between this time-period dependend from
the independend variables.

Until now i think about an "easy" function  what use the
Bayes-Theorem, but it's too bad that i'm
not a mathematican.

Thanks for any starting point, idea, link or paper!

P.S.
I now the msm package, but think it's complex for my intention!?


Regards,Christian



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I don't know if I understand what you want, but I wonder if the 
following might help: 

 > Ptrans <- data.frame(Jan=LETTERS[rep(1:2, 5)],
+ June=LETTERS[rep(1:2, each=5)])
 > (table(Ptrans$Jan, Ptrans$June)/dim(Ptrans)[1])
  
      A    B 
  A 0.3 0.2
  B 0.2 0.3

hope this helps.  spencer graves

Christian Schulz wrote:
>Hi,
>
>have got anybody experience or a starting
>point for me, how i can program a function 
>which calculate me a probability transition matrix with a data.frame and two
states.
>
>I have some independend variable and  a class variable 
>for two states - in example one from Jan2003 and the same variables from
June2003.
>
>Now i  would like to calculate the probability that PERSON X change 
>from classA to classB  between this time-period dependend from
>the independend variables.
>
>Until now i think about an "easy" function  what use the
Bayes-Theorem, but it's too bad that i'm
>not a mathematican.
>
>Thanks for any starting point, idea, link or paper!
>
>P.S.
>I now the msm package, but think it's complex for my intention!?
>
>
>Regards,Christian
>
>
>
>	[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
>
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>  
>