I've some demand data, for which I wish to judge what will be the direction in the forecast period (Up/Down). What will be a best ML method to do this? Currently I'm using the data given below - 9/4/2016 241 9/11/2016 233 9/18/2016 226 9/25/2016 282 10/2/2016 291 10/9/2016 282 10/16/2016 308 10/23/2016 291 10/30/2016 268 11/6/2016 262 11/13/2016 273 11/20/2016 262 11/27/2016 309 12/4/2016 317 12/11/2016 331 12/18/2016 382 12/25/2016 358 1/1/2017 359 1/8/2017 342 1/15/2017 332 1/22/2017 324 1/29/2017 298 2/5/2017 283 2/12/2017 274 2/19/2017 278 2/26/2017 245 3/5/2017 214 3/12/2017 217 3/19/2017 234 4/16/2017 204 4/23/2017 197 4/30/2017 203 5/7/2017 198 5/14/2017 211 5/21/2017 186 5/28/2017 176 6/4/2017 183 6/11/2017 180 6/18/2017 177 6/25/2017 157 7/2/2017 179 7/9/2017 191 I'm using 'forecastHybrid' package in R with the following code, but unfortunately the forecasts I'm getting based on last observation only (i.e. 191), which doesn't seem to be correct. Will any other model be relevant here, i.e. SVM, RF etc. Any specific guidance/code in R will be much appreciated. mod1 <- hybridModel(t) fc1 <- forecast(mod1) fc1 [[alternative HTML version deleted]]
I suggest, you read: Forecasting: principles and practice from Hyndman-Athana?sopou?los https://www.otexts.org/fpp
> On Aug 11, 2017, at 4:47 AM, Suzen, Mehmet <msuzen at gmail.com> wrote: > > I suggest, you read: > Forecasting: principles and practice from Hyndman-Athana?sopou?los > https://www.otexts.org/fppI also suggest reading the Posting Guide and reposting the question in palin text. The HTML format has mangled what is there. Further: It's not clear whether the initial post has a complete example because those dates are not appreaing in a manner that suggests correct data entry.> > ______________________________________________ > R-help at r-project.org mailing list -- To UNSUBSCRIBE and more, see > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.David Winsemius Alameda, CA, USA 'Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced.' -Gehm's Corollary to Clarke's Third Law