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2011 Feb 01
1
Estimation and Forecast of Seasonal Component
Hi list, I would like to estimate and forecast the seasonal component of a series. My model which uses daily data would be something y t = alpha + beta x SeasComp t + gamma x OtherRegressors t. One approach to this would be use quarterly dummies, another to use a sine function. The first would cause a step change when we move from a season to another; the latter impose too much regularity in my data, i.e. symmetry around y-axis and x-axis. I have looked at decompose and stl but co...