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2011 Dec 01
1
Estimation of AR(1) Model with Markov Switching
...ity of the markov chain # use unconditional probabilities p0_s0 <- (1 - p_s1_s1) / (2 -p_s0_s0 -p_s1_s1) p0_s1 <- 1-p0_s0 # create variables p_s0_t_1 <- rep(0, nrow(X)) p_s1_t_1 <- rep(0, nrow(X)) p_s0_t <- rep(0, nrow(X)) p_s1_t <- rep(0, nrow(X)) f_s0 <- rep(0,nrow(X)-1) f_s1 <- rep(0,nrow(X)-1) f <- rep(0,nrow(X)-1) logf <- rep(0, nrow(X)-1) p_s0_t[1] <- p0_s0 p_s1_t[1] <- p0_s1 # initiate hamilton filter for(i in 2:nrow(X)) { # calculate prior probabilities using the TPT # TPT for this example gives us # p_si_t_1 = p_si_t_1_si * p_si_t + p_si_t_1...