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hi, hi, good morning everyone. I have a time series with binary outputs like : 0001011110100.................etc. Now I want to forecast the future values of that. Can anyone please tell me whether there is any tools exist in literature for dealing with this kind of binary observation? If possible please provide me some good references in net as well. rgd, Megh

I need to find a computationally simple process for the movement of interest rates. In this simplified model, an interest rate can have 3--5 possible values, and its movement is characterized by a matrix of transition probabilities (ie, it is a Markov process). I would like to estimate this process from a given set of data. For example, let the interest rate time series be: 7 3 8 2 5 9 6