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...day was 13 hours long, giving 156 bins. See http://tinyurl.com/36vzop for the scatterplot. There is a rather high random variation, due in part to the fact that the bin width was intentionally set to be narrow, in order to improve the amount of timing information gathered. http://tinyurl.com/3xjsyo displays the fitted curve. A GAM was used, with the loess smoothing algorithm (locally weighted regression). The default span was used. http://tinyurl.com/34av6l gives the scatterplot and the fitted curve. The two seem to match reasonably well. However, when I tried to generate the standard err...