R help - Jul 2015 - Task estimation - Monte Carlo

Hi

   I am trying to  simulate task estimation person days using this type of R
code. But I am not sure about reasoning here. Should the distribution be beta or
triangular or something else ? How do we get the values of mu,z and s here ? Are
there any explanations available ? Sections of some book ?

I have the book about monte carlo analysis using R but that looks like the next
step for me. I am at a preliminary stage.


taskestimation <- function( low , high, ci=0.9, n=10000) {
mu = mean(c(low,high))
z = qnorm(1-(1-ci)/2)
s = (high - mu)/z
rnorm(n, mu, s)
}

result = taskestimation(10,80)


#calculate the percentage of cases below certain number of days
length(result[result < 50])/length(result)

I am able to plot a density curve showing the percentage of completion below
'50' days that the simulation predicts.

Thanks,
Mohan
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