similar to: Package for Markov (Regime) Switching (ARMA) Models

Hi, I am looking for a package to estimate regime switching models (states following a markov chain). I found packages for Hidden Markov Models but I am looking for something a little different: In the HMM the conditional distribution of the observations (give the state) is a known distribution (normal or others), while the package I need should allow to set a conditional distribution (given the

Greetings fellow R entusiasts! We have some problems converting a computer routine written initially for Gauss to estimate a Markov Regime Switching analysis with Time Varying Transition Probability. The source code in Gauss is here: http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/cnelson/markov/programs/hmt_tvp.opt We have converted the code to R, and it's running without errors, but we have some

Dear R users, I have been trying to obtain the MLE of the following model state 0: y_t = 2 + 0.5 * y_{t-1} + e_t state 1: y_t = 0.5 + 0.9 * y_{t-1} + e_t where e_t ~ iidN(0,1) transition probability between states is 0.2 I've generated some fake data and tried to estimate the parameters using the constrOptim() function but I can't get sensible answers using it. I've tried using

Dear Users, i have this time series, the tree lines means different level, i would use a Markov switching model with two states to modelling this time series. i would obtain the relative transition matrix (2X2) the first state is above the value of 23.65 (the higher line) the second state is below the value of 23.65 You can ignore the other two lines

Thank you for your prompt answer. The breathing signal observations are the amplitude values as a function of time and phase. According to our model the hidden states are the different breathing types. Subjects, whose respiratiion process is regular, are likely to breathe, keeping the same cycle pattern/type, for many consecutive cycles. therefore dwelling in the same hidden state. The more

Hi, i am working in the forecast of the daily price crude . The last prices of this data are the following: 100.60 101.47 100.20 100.06 98.68 101.28 101.05 102.13 101.70 98.27 101.00 100.50 100.03 102.23 102.68 103.32 102.67 102.23 102.14 101.25 101.11 99.90 98.53 96.76 96.12 96.54 96.30 95.92 95.92 93.45 93.71 96.42 93.99 93.76 95.24 95.63 95.95 95.83 95.65

Hello. I've got a problem with arma/xreg. I would like to get a better model-fit by implenting some external explanatory variable, so I thought I can implement it by expand the arima-function with an xreg-argument: I have two stationary data vectors y and x of length 201: y <-

Hello, I am running an ARMA model to run forecast for changes in S&P 500 prices. My ARMA calculations look as follows armacal <- arma( spdata, order = c(0,4), lag = list(ma = c(1,2,4)) ) Output: Call: arma(x = spdata, order = c(0, 4), lag = list(ma = c(1, 2, 4)) ) Coefficient(s): ma1 ma2 ma4 intercept -0.073868 0.058020 -0.081292 0.007082 All's

Hi all, I am fitting an ARMA(1,(1,4)) model. y(t) = a*y(t-1) + e(t) + b1*e(t-1) + b4*e(t-4) > arma1.14 <- arma(series, lag=list(ar=1, ma=c(1,4)), + include.intercept = F, qr.tol = 1e-07) works fine: Coefficient(s): ar1 ma1 ma4 0.872 -0.445 0.331 I want to forecast 50 periods. I could not find a 'predict' function for ARMA models. I

Hi, Is there a package that will estimate simple Markov models and hidden Markov models for discrete time processes in R? Thanks in advance, David -- =============================================================== David Kaplan, Ph.D. Professor Department of Educational Psychology University of Wisconsin - Madison Educational Sciences, Room, 1061 1025 W. Johnson Street Madison, WI 53706

Thomas, may I also suggest, from the Documentation>Contributed section of CRAN, "Econometrics in R" by Grant Farnsworth http://cran.at.r-project.org/doc/contrib/Farnsworth-EconometricsInR.pdf (see the chapter on Time series) and, in case you can read Italian, "Analisi delle serie storiche con R" by Vito Ricci http://cran.at.r-project.org/doc/contrib/Ricci-ts-italian.pdf

Dear ALL: Could you please eamil me how to simulate Mixed Seasonal ARMA (p,q)x(P,Q)12 models [say ARMA(0,1)x(1,0)12 ]from R. With many thanks. Abou ========================== AbouEl-Makarim Aboueissa, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Statistics Department of Mathematics & Statistics University of Southern Maine 96 Falmouth Street P.O. Box 9300 Portland, ME 04104-9300 Tel: (207)

Dear helpers, Does anyone know about a package or a function that allows to estimate Multivariate Markov-Switching Models, like MS-VAR as introduced by Krolzig(1997) with R ? Thanks a lot!! Carlo

Hello I was looking for the source code for the new arima procedure the STARMA model (Space-Time ARMA) If somebody have the source code of this model please send me them I'm student and in my research for my master I'm appling the STARMA model for modelling the pollutant particules. It's very important Thank you. --------------------------------- [[alternative HTML

Could anyone tell me where can I find some examples of the applications to economics of a Markov chain? Many thanks in advance. Luis Rivera. -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.- r-help mailing list -- Read http://www.ci.tuwien.ac.at/~hornik/R/R-FAQ.html Send "info", "help", or "[un]subscribe" (in the "body", not

(My apologies if this is a repeated posting. I couldn't find any trace of my previous attempt in the archive.) I'm having trouble with forecast() in the dse2 package. It works fine for me on a model without a trend, but gives me NaN output for the forecast values when using a model with a trend. An example: # Set inputs and outputs for the ARMA model fit and test periods

Hi I am trying to fit a time series data.It gives a AR(2) model using the ar function and ARMA(1,1) model using autoarmafit function in timsac package.How do I know which is the correct underlying model? pls help -- View this message in context: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/AR-vs-ARMA-model-tp4639015.html Sent from the R help mailing list archive at Nabble.com.

Hi all, I'm looking for a package that will estimate Markov models and provide transition probabilities. I'm not speaking of MCMM estimation packages. Thanks in advance, David -- ======================================================================= David Kaplan, Ph.D. Professor Department of Educational Psychology University of Wisconsin - Madison Educational Sciences, Room 1061

Dear R community, I am looking for an R package or other software to study hidden Markov models. I need to be able to incorporate multivariate emissions and covariates for the transition probabilities. The msm package seems almost perfect for my purpose, but I do not think it allows multivariate emissions. I will be grateful for your suggestions. All the best, -- Emilio A. Laca One

I have the following time series model for prediction purposes *Loss_t = b1* Loss_(t-1) + b2*GDP_t + b3*W_(t-1)* where W_t is the usual white noise variable. So this is similar to ARMA(1,1) except that it also contains an extra predictor, GDP at time t. I have only 20 observations on each variable except GDP for which I know till 100 values. And most importantly,I have also calculated