similar to: storing several arima models

Hello R experts! Last week I run in to a lot a problems triyng to fit an ARIMA model to a time series. The problem is that the internal process of the arima function call function "optim" to estimate the model parameters, so far so good... but my data presents a problem with the default method "BFGS" of the optim function, the output error looks like this: Error en

Hello everybody! I have an ARIMA model for a time series. This model was obtained through an auto.arima function. The resulting model is a ARIMA(2,1,4)(2,0,1)[12] with drift (my time series has monthly data). Then I perform a 12-step ahead forecast to the cited model... so far so good... but when I look the plot of my forecast I see that the result is really far from the behavior of my time

Hello everyone, I'm doing some benchmark comparing Arima [1] and SVR on time series data. I'm using an out-of-sample one-step-ahead prediction from Arima using the "fitted" method [2]. Do someone know how to have a two-steps-ahead forecast timeseries from Arima? Thanks, Matteo Bertini [1] http://robjhyndman.com/software/forecast [2] AirPassengers example on page 5

Hello R experts! I'm running a FOR loop in which at every step an arima model is generated. The problem is some series produces numeric problems with optim. My question is if there is a way of telling to R that at every critical error of optim jumps to the next series instead of stopping the calculations. Or better yet, tell it to run another arima fit but with a different optmization

Hello, does anyone know about: a) simulating seasonal ARIMA models? arima out of package ts can fit it, but it does not look like it can simulates data from seasonal models b) fitting and simulating fractional seasonal ARIMA models? Hints will be appreciated, Henning -- Henning Rust Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Dept. Integrated Systems Analysis Tel.: #49/331/288-2596

Hello everyone, I was trying to fit an arima model to a daily historical data, but, for some reason, havent been able to. I basically have 212 observations (from 12/1/2012 to 06/30/2013) containing the number of transits for a particular vessel. The following messages are produced by R: dailytrans.fit<-arima(dailytrans$transits, order=c(0,1,2), seasonal=list(order=c(0,1,2), period=365),

Hi, i'm beginner in Bayesian methods, I'm reading the documentation about dlm package and kalman filters, I'm looking for a example of transformation of ARIMA in a state space equivalent to use the dlm package and calcualte the hyperparameters. Someone can help me about it?. If it's possible with a arima(1,0,1) example, or more complex model. While I have more examples best for me.

Hi people, I´m trying to development a simple routine to run many Arima models result from some parâmeters combination. My data test have one year and daily level. A part of routine is: for ( d in 0:1 ) { for ( p in 0:3 ) { for ( q in 0:3 ) { for ( sd in 0:1 ) { for ( sp in 0:3 ) { for ( sq in 0:3 ) {

Hello, I have a several time series, which I would like to check for their best fitted Arima model (I am checking for the lowest aic value). Which lets me raise two questions: 1) is there are more efficient way, than using 6 for-loops? 2) sometimes the system cannot calculate with given parameters - is there a more efficient solution than I found? I hope, you can help me to make this

Hello: I would like to generate rolling, multiperiod forecasts from an estimated ARIMA model, but the function predict.Arima seems only to generate forecasts from the last observation in the data set. To implement this, I was looking for an argument like 'newdata=' in predict.lm. I can write some code that does this for my particular problem, but might there exist a

Hello R users, Hope everyone is doing great. I have a dataset that is in .csv format and consists of two columns: one named Period (which contains dates in the format yyyy_mm) and goes from 1995_10 to 2007_09 and the second column named pcumsdry which is a volumetric measure and has been formatted as numeric without any commas or decimals. I imported the dataset as pauldataset and made use of

In some time series simulations I'm doing, I occasionally want the model to be ``white noise'', i.e. no model at all. I thought it would be nice if I could fit this into the arima.sim() context, without making an exceptional case. I.e. one ***could*** do something to the effect if(length(model)==0) x <- rnorm(n) else x <- arima.sim(model,n) but it would be more suave if one

Hi, All, This is my program ts1.sim <- arima.sim(list(order = c(1,1,0), ar = c(0.7)), n = 200) ts2.sim <- arima.sim(list(order = c(1,1,0), ar = c(0.5)), n = 200) tdata<-ts(c(ts1.sim[-1],ts2.sim[-1])) tre<-c(rep(0,200),rep(1,200)) gender<-rbinom(400,1,.5) x<-matrix(0,2,400) x[1,]<-tre x[2,]<-gender fit <- arima(tdata, c(1, 1, 0), method = "CSS",xreg=t(x))

Dear R, I have find a website where they report problem with ARIMA models in R. I run the examples there and they give result as shown on the website. Does this mean that nothing has corrected in R? Maybe you not have seen the page, but the author said he contacted you. Here is the URL: http://www.stat.pitt.edu/stoffer/tsa2/Rissues.htm I like to know your opinion. Mvh. Marie [[alternative

Dear R, I have find a website where they report problem with ARIMA models in R. I run the examples there and they give result as shown on the website. Does this mean that nothing has corrected in R? Maybe you not have seen the page, but the author said he contacted you. Here is the URL: http://www.stat.pitt.edu/stoffer/tsa2/Rissues.htm I like to know your opinion. Mvh. Marie [[alternative

Hi Could just anyone explain me the coefficients in the output of arima model timeseriesarima <- arima(series, order=c(1,1,2)) > timeseriesarima Series: series ARIMA(1,1,2) Coefficients: ar1 ma1 ma2 0.9744 -1.7695 0.7873 s.e. 0.0310 0.0481 0.0426 sigma^2 estimated as 337.4: log likelihood=-1096.03 AIC=2200.07 AICc=2200.23 BIC=2214.2 ****************

I'm trying to use the following command. arima (x, order = c(p,d,q), seasonal =list(order=c(P,D,Q), period=s) How can I write an estimated seasonal ARIMA model from the outputs. To be specifically, which sign to use? I know R uses a different signs from S plus. Is it correct that the model is: (1-ar1*B-ar2*B^2-...)(1-sar1*B^s-sar2*B^2s-....)(1-B)^d(1-B^s)^D

Hi, I want to give a summary or anova for "arima" model in R, as "summary", and "anova" for "lm". As including various intervention factors in arima(xreg = ) part, I want to assess the significancy of thse factors. I can do it using interrupted analysis of time series by linear regression, but want to see whether arima model works for the data first.

Hi, Does anyone know a method for adding a linear/polynominal trend to a simulated arima model using the arima.sim function? Any help will be greatly appreciated. Cheers, Sam.

Hello, Does anyone know how the parameter estimates are calculated for xreg variables when called as part of an arima() command, or know of any literature that provides this info? In particular, I was wondering if there is a quick way to compare different combinations of "xreg" variables in the arima() fit in the same way that you would in multiple regression (using AIC & R^2