similar to: AICc vs AIC for model selection

Hello, In order to do a future forecast based on my past Time Series data sets (salespricesproduct1, salespricesproduct2, etc..), I used arima() functions with different parameter combinations which give the smallest AIC. I also used auto.arima() which finds the parameters with the smallest AICs. But unfortuanetly I could not get satisfactory forecast() results, even sometimes catastrophic

Hello everybody! I have an ARIMA model for a time series. This model was obtained through an auto.arima function. The resulting model is a ARIMA(2,1,4)(2,0,1)[12] with drift (my time series has monthly data). Then I perform a 12-step ahead forecast to the cited model... so far so good... but when I look the plot of my forecast I see that the result is really far from the behavior of my time

Buenos días, Os cuento: Cargo la librería "Forecast" y ejecuto su función Arima(...) sobre una serie temporal: mimodelo <- Arima(miST$miserie, ...); Ahora si ejecuto las siguientes sentencias, voy obteniendo los resultados contenidos en "mimodelo", pero algunos de ellos no sé lo que son: mimodelo[[1]] obtengo los coeficientes del modelo ARIMA mimodelo[[2]] obtengo el

Hello R users, Hope everyone is doing great. I have a dataset that is in .csv format and consists of two columns: one named Period (which contains dates in the format yyyy_mm) and goes from 1995_10 to 2007_09 and the second column named pcumsdry which is a volumetric measure and has been formatted as numeric without any commas or decimals. I imported the dataset as pauldataset and made use of

Hello, I using the fuction auto.arima() from package forecast to predict the values of p,d,q and P,D,Q. My problem is the execution time of this function, for example, a time series with 2323 values with seasonality to the week take over 8 hours to execute all the possibilities. I using a computer with Windows XP, a processor Intel Core2 Duo T7300 and 2Gb of RAM.

Hello R users, I want to export to an xls or .csv some predictions I produced with the auto.arima and forecast functions. A detail of all my work is presented below. I loaded a package called dataframes2xls and tried to use the function write.xls without any success. Can anybody help me figure this out? How could I get R to export the output to an xls file? Any help will be greatly

Hi, My query is related to ARIMA function in stats package. While looking for the time series literature I found following link which highlights discrepancy in "arima" function while dealing with differenced time series. Is there a substitute function similar to "sarima" mentioned in the following website implemened in R? Any pointers would be of great help.

Rob J Hyndman gives great explanation here (https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/estimation/) for reasons why results from R's arima may differ from other softwares. @iacobus, to cite one, 'Major discrepancies between R and Stata for ARIMA' (https://stackoverflow.com/questions/22443395/major-discrepancies-between-r-and-stata-for-arima), assign the, sometimes, big diferences from R

Good evening! I have a question regarding forecast package and time series analysis. My syntax: x<-c(253, 252, 275, 275, 272, 254, 272, 252, 249, 300, 244, 258, 255, 285, 301, 278, 279, 304, 275, 276, 313, 292, 302, 322, 281, 298, 305, 295, 286, 327, 286, 270, 289, 293, 287, 267, 267, 288, 304, 273, 264, 254, 263, 265, 278) library(forecast) arima(x, order=c(1,1,2),

How can I extract K (number of parameters) from an AIC calculation, both to report K itself and to calculate AICc? I'm aware of the conversion from AIC -> AICc, where AICc = AIC + 2K(K+1)/(n-K-1), but not sure of how K is calculated or how to extract that value from either an AIC or logLik calculation. This is probably more of a basic statistics question than an R question, but I thank

Hi, I'm fitting poisson regression models to counts of birds in 1x1 km squares using several environmental variables as predictors. I do this in a stepwise way, using the stepAIC function. However the resulting models appear to be overparametrized, since too much variables were included. I would like to know if there is the possibility of fitting models by steps but using the AICc

Hi all, First: I have a small line of code I'm applying to a variable which will be placed in a matrix table for latex output of accuracy measures: acc.aarima <- signif(accuracy(forecast(auto.arima(tix_ts, stepwise=FALSE), h=365)), digits=3). The time series referred to is univariate (daily counts from 12-10-2010 until 5-8-2010 (so not 2 full periods of data)), and I'm working on

i am using sarima() function as below ___________________________________________________________________________________________ sarima=function(data,p,d,q,P=0,D=0,Q=0,S=-1,tol=.001){ n=length(data) constant=1:n xmean=matrix(1,n,1) if (d>0 & D>0) fitit=arima(data, order=c(p,d,q), seasonal=list(order=c(P,D,Q), period=S),

hi: I am trying to fit prediction intervals for an arima object. My search led me to the link: http://finzi.psych.upenn.edu/R/library/forecast/html/forecast.Arima.html which has the function "forecast", as I wanted. However, when I try to run it in R, I get the message: Error in plot(forecast(fit)) : could not find function "forecast" Even the example provided on the page

I am fitting logistic regression models, by defining my own link function, and would like to get AICc values. Using the glm command gives a value for AIC, but I haven't been able to get R to convert that to AICc. Is there a code that has already been written for this? Right now I am just putting the AIC values into an excel spreadsheet and calculating AICc, likelihood, and AIC

Hello everyone, I'm doing some benchmark comparing Arima [1] and SVR on time series data. I'm using an out-of-sample one-step-ahead prediction from Arima using the "fitted" method [2]. Do someone know how to have a two-steps-ahead forecast timeseries from Arima? Thanks, Matteo Bertini [1] http://robjhyndman.com/software/forecast [2] AirPassengers example on page 5

Hello, I am very new to R and Time Series. I need some help including R codes about the following issues. I' ll really appreciate any number of answers... # I have a time series data composed of 24 values: myinput = c(n1,n2...,n24); # In order to make a forecasting a, I use the following codes result1 = arima(ts(myinput),order = c(p,d,q),seasonal = list(order=c(P,D,Q))) result2 =

Dear forum, I would like to forecast e.g. with the arima-model. To figure out which model works best I am going to predict with this models. my first code: for(ar.ord in 1:3){ for(ma.ord in 1:3){ print(predict(arima(para_qtr[1:(n-8),1],order=c(ar.ord,1,ma.ord)), n.ahead=8)$pred) } } this one works. but I want to "save" my results in a matrix or a data.frame. my second code:

Dear members of the list, I'm fitting poisson regression models using stepAIC that appear to be overparametrized. I would like to know if there is the possibility of fitting models by steps but using the AICc instead of AIC. Best wishes German Lopez

dear members, I have a heteroscedastic time series which I want to transform to make it homoscedastic by a box cox transformation. I am using Otexts by RJ hyndman and George Athanopolous as my textbook. They discuss transformation and also say the fpp3 and the fable package automatically back transforms the point forecast. they also discuss the process which I find to be