similar to: AR Simulation with non-normal innovations - Correct

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: ma yuchao <ma.yuchao@gmail.com> Date: 2006-5-20 ÉÏÎç4:01 Subject: hello, everyone To: R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch Hello, R people: I have a question in using fSeries package--the funciton garchFit and garchOxFit if adding a regression to the mean formula, how to estimate the model in R? using garchFit or garchOxFit? For example,

Hey, I'm trying to implement a GARCH model with Johnson-Su innovations in order to simulate returns of financial asset. The model should look like this: r_t = alpha + lambda*sqrt(h_t) + sqrt(h_t)*epsilon_t h_t = alpha0 + alpha1*epsilon_(t-1)^2 + beta1 * h_(t-1). Alpha refers to a risk-free return, lambda to the risk-premium. I've implemented it like this: #specification of the model

Dear R-help-archive.. I am trying to figure out how to make arima prediction when I have a process involving multivariate time series input, and one output time series (output is to be predicted) .. (thus strictly speaking its an ARMAX process). I know that the arima function of R was not designed to handle multivariate analysis (there is dse but it doesnt handle arma multivariate analysis, only

Dear R users, I have been trying to obtain the MLE of the following model state 0: y_t = 2 + 0.5 * y_{t-1} + e_t state 1: y_t = 0.5 + 0.9 * y_{t-1} + e_t where e_t ~ iidN(0,1) transition probability between states is 0.2 I've generated some fake data and tried to estimate the parameters using the constrOptim() function but I can't get sensible answers using it. I've tried using

Hi, I want to fit a regression model with one independent variable. The error part should be fitted an ARMA process. For example, y_t = a + b*x_t + e_t where e_t is modelled as an ARMA process. Please let me know how do I do this in R. What code should I use? TIA Aditya [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

Hi R-helpers, I'm new to time series modelling, but my requirement seems to fall just outside the capabilities of the arima function in R. I'd like to fit an ARMA model where the variance of the disturbances is a function of some exogenous variable. So something like: Y_t = a_0 + a_1 * Y_(t-1) +...+ a_p * Y_(t-p) + b_1 * e_(t-1) +...+ b_q * e_(t-q) + e_t, where e_t ~ N(0, sigma^2_t),

Hi, I would like to estimate a VAR of the form: Ay_t = By_t-1 + Cy_t-2 + ... + Dx_t + e_t Where A is a non-diagonal matrix of coefficients, B and C are matricies of coefficients and D is a matrix of coefficients for the exogenous variables. I don't think the package {vars} can do this because I want to include contemporaneous cross-variable impacts. So I want y1_t to affect y2_t and I

Hi, I need help regarding estimating a linear model where restrictions are imposed on the coefficients. An example is as follows: Y_{t+2}=a1Y_{t+1} + a2 Y_t + b x_t + e_t restriction a1+ a2 =1 Is there a function or a package that can estimate the coefficient of a model like this? I want to estimate the coefficients rather than test them. Thank you for your help Ahmad Abu Hammour --------------

This is not an R question but if anyone can help me, it's much appreciated. Suppose I have a series ( stationary ) y_t and a series x_t ( stationary )and x_t has variance sigma^2_x and epsilon is normal (0, sigma^2_epsilon ) and the two series have the relation y_t = Beta*x_t + epsilon My question is if there are particular values that sigma^2_x and sigma^2_epsilon have to take in

Hi, I'm bit confused about ecdf (read the help files but still not sure about this). I have an analytical expression for the pdf, but want to get the empirical cdf. How do I use this analytical expression with ecdf? If this helps make it concrete, the pdf is: f(u) = \sum_{t = 1}^T 1/n_t \sum_{i = 1}^{n_t} 1/w K((u - u_{it})/w) where K = kernel density estimator, w = weights, and u_{it} =

Dear R users, suppose we have a random walk such as: v_t+1 = v_t + e_t+1 where e_t is a normal IID noise pocess with mean = m and standard deviation = sd and v_t is the fundamental value of a stock. Now suppose I want a trading strategy to be: x_t+1 = c(v_t – p_t) where c is a costant. I know, from the paper where this equations come from (Farmer and Joshi, The price dynamics of common

Dear all, I have a serious problem to solve my model. I study over exploitation of fish in the bay of biscay (france). I know only the level of catch and the fishing effort (see data below) by year. My model is composed by the following equations: * the growth function Gt(St) = r*St*(1-St/sbar) with Gt the growth of each period t r intrinsec growth of the stock sbar carriyng capacity of the

hi: you should probably send below to R-Sig-Finance because there are some econometrics people over there who could also possibly give you a good answer and may not see this email ? Also, there's package called mar ( I think that's the name ) that may do what you want ? Finally, I don't know how to do it but I think there are ways of converting a multivariate arima into the

Hi. I have a problem that I can't seem to find an optimal way of solving other than by doing things manually. I'm trying to subset a data frame by the number of observations that occurred at a given row but want to take into account the number of observations of preceding rows. Here's an example. I'm looking at intervals of data [10,20), [10, 30), ....., [10,120) which contain a

Dear All, I have a model to predict time series data for example: data(LakeHuron) Lake.fit <- arima(LakeHuron,order=c(1,0,1)) then the function predict() can be used for predicting future data with the model: LakeH.pred <- predict(Lake.fit,n.ahead=5) I can see the result LakeH.pred$pred and LakeH.pred$se but I did not see residual in predict function. If I have a model: [\ Z_t =

Dear R list As suggested by Prof Brian Ripley, I have tried to read acf literature. The main problem is I am not the statistician and hence have some problem in understanding the concepts immediately. I came across one literature (http://www.stat.nus.edu.sg/~staxyc/REG32.pdf) on auto-correlation giving the methodology. As per that literature, the auto-correlation is arrived at as per following.

Dear R users, I'm trying to carry out monte carlo integration of a posterior density function which is the product of a normal and a gamma distribution. The problem I have is that the density function always returns 0. How can I solve this problem? Here is my code #generate data x1 <- runif(100, min = -10, max = 10) y <- 2 * x1^2 + rnorm(100) # # # # # # # # Model 0 # # # # # # #

Apologies for thickness - I'm sure that this operates as documented and with good reason. However... My understanding of arima.sim() is obviously imperfect. In the example below I assume that x1 and x2 are similar white noise processes with a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 1. I thought x3 should be an AR1 process but still have a mean of 5 and a sd of 1. Why does x3 have a mean of ~7?

Dear all, I am trying to write an R function that can estimate Transfer functions *with additive noise* i.e. Y_t = \delta^-1(B)\omega(B)X_{t-b} + N_t where B is the backward shift operator, b is the delay and N_t is a noisy component that can be modelled as an ARMA process. The parameters to both the impulse response function and the ARMA noisy component need to be estimated simultaneously. I

Hello, I am using odesolve to simulate a group of people moving through time and transmitting infections to one another. In Matlab, there is a NonNegative option which tells the Matlab solver to keep the vector elements of the ODE solution non-negative at all times. What is the right way to do this in R? Thanks, Jeremy P.S., Below is a simplified version of the code I use to try to do this,