similar to: question about GARCH - newbie question

Hi, Although my doubt is pretty,as i m not from stats background i am not sure how to proceed on this. Currently i am doing a forecasting.I used ARIMA to forecast and time series was volatile i used garchFit for residuals. How to use the output of Garch to correct the forecasted values from ARIMA. Here is my code: ###delta is the data fit<-arima(delta,order=c(2,,0,1)) fit.res <-

Hey Guys, i want to do a CAPM-GARCH model. I didn?t find anything posted online. (If there is something - shame on me - i didn?t find it.) My Problem: What is the difference if I let the residuals ?e? follow a garch process ? How do I do my regression analysis now? I began reading about regression analyis with heteroscedasticity, but didn?t get it. So i started programming. First

hello everybody, I would like to fit a model to a times series (testing set) for out of sample predictions using garchFit(). I would like to keep the coefficients of ARMA/GARCH model fixed (as found by fitting the model to my training set). The arima fitting function has such an option for that (fixed=NULL) but the garchFit() doesnt. It is very important for me to keep the same coefficients

I'm searching for a function to fit a conditional mean structure (ARIMA) and a conditional variance structure (GARCH) to a data set for one model. Particularly, I'm trying to fit an IMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model to a data set. However, I can't seem to find a function that will let me specify both the ARIMA and GARCH components. Any help would be appreciated! -- View this message in

Thank you so much all for your invaluable inputs. On Sat, Jun 4, 2011 at 3:36 AM, Patrick Burns <patrick at burns-stat.com> wrote: > A common thing to do is the Ljung-Box > test on the residuals. ?For garch it > would be the residuals squared. > > Actually for garch it should be the > rank of the squared residuals -- see >

hello, In my time series data, I was able to successfully fit its ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins) and its GARCH model and estimate their parameters. I was also able to forecast future values of the time series based on my fitted ARIMA model using the predict() function call. However, I'm not sure what is the correct function command to call in order to forecast future values of my time series

Hi, i did in the last month a research about timeseries with the function ARIMA(). Where i had to know how to predict and forecast new datapoints in the future. Not only the things the functions predict() and forecast() can do. All was ok, as the arima function was in the major parts convergent and i did know how to predict for example in a simple ARIMA(x,0,y)-model. Now i have to do the same

Hi, I've fitted a GARCH(1,1) for the residuals of my time serie (X). X is an ARMA(1,1) process. Now I want to do a n-step forecast for X, knowing these processes. How can I do this? I know that there's a command: predict() for ARIMA processes and so on, but what about GARCH? I've got: arma=arima(x, order=c(1,0,1)) (...) garch11<-garch(residuals(x),order = c(1, 1))

This is not exactly an R question but the R code below may make my question more understandable. If one plots sin(x) where x runs from -pi to pi , then the curve hovers around zero obviously. so , in a"stationary in the mean" sense, the series is stationary. But, clearly if one plots the acf, the autocorrelations at lower lags are quite high and, in the "box jenkins"

Hello, I would like to study time series with ARIMA and GARCH models. I installed R-Plus and its libraries but when I try to execute the function arima0, It answers that the function does not exist. Could you help me or give me references of papers dealing with arima and garch in R-Plus? Thanks Beno?t, ___________________________________ Mr. Beno?t LACHERON Rue de l'industrie, 44, 1040

Hello, I am modelling a Time Serie with ARIMA-GARCH and i have already determined the coefficients ( ARIMA and GARCH) with other software. Now I am trying to do the forecast in R, but i don't know how i can import the coefficients. I will be very pleased if someone help me. Daniel _________________________________________________________________ Mais do que mensagens – conheça

Hi, I am new to using R and time series analysis in general. I have written code to combine ARIMA + GARCH in forcasting. I am finding it hard to actually get predicted values once I have model built and fit it to data series. i.e. how can I use predict function to give me n.ahead = k number of values. Thanks in advance, Vinay -- View this message in context:

Hi, as i suppose to know in a stationary GARCH(1,1) model the sum of alpha and beta has to be smaller than 1. But if i use the garchfit() function from the package fGarch for my timeseries the sum is bigger than 1. The adf.test tells me a p-value smaller than 0.01 instead. What does this mean for me? Can i trust in the coefficients in this case? mfg user84 -- View this message in context:

Ukech U. Kidi wrote: > dax<- diff(log(DAX_CAC$DAX[1:1865])) > m1<- garch(dax) > Error: couldn't find function "garch" > m1<- garch(dax[1:1865]) > Error: couldn't find function "garch" > m1<- garch(dax[1:1865]) I am sorry, but I forgot to change the addres to r-help in the reply. Well, I am not sure, wheere do you want to get

Dear R users, I am trying to use tseries' garch function in order to determine the volatility of a return series generated by quantmod. Here is the code that I am using: > library(quantmod) > getSymbols("AAPL") convert daily closing prices into continuous log returns > dret<-dailyReturn(AAPL,type='log') check to see that the autocorrelations decay >

Hi all, I was trying garchFIt() of fSeries to fit volatility of monthly log returns of S&P500. I tried residuals of normal, student t, skew normal, skew t. But all innovations except normal got exaxtly same coefficients, even if I changed their parameters of skew and shape. Is this correct for the data or something wrong? I am attaching the code, thank you. Muster #GARCH analysis of

Hello I am trying to use predict from an arma-Garch model (arma(2, 2) + garch(1, 1)) and I am getting the following error: Error en arima(x = object@data, order = c(max(u, 1), 0, max(v, 1)), init = c(ar, : non-stationary AR part from CSS Does anybody know what can be the reason of this error? The model I have estimated is the following: Title: GARCH Modelling Call: garchFit(formula =

Dear all R users, I am really struggling to determine the most appropriate lag order of ARIMA model. My understanding is that, as for MA [q] model the auto correlation coeff vanishes after q lag, it says the MA order of a ARIMA model, and for a AR[p] model partial autocorrelation vanishes after p lags it helps to determine the AR lag. And most appropriate model choosed by this argument gives

Dear R-Users, are there any ARIMA/GARCH-packages/functions for R? Best regards, M. Fischer -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.- r-help mailing list -- Read http://www.ci.tuwien.ac.at/~hornik/R/R-FAQ.html Send "info", "help", or "[un]subscribe" (in the "body", not the subject !) To: r-help-request at

Dear list members, I am trying to estimate parameters of the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. I have one additional dummy variable for the AR(1) part. First I wanted to do it using garchFit function (everything would be then estimated in one step) however in the fGarch library I didn't find a way to include an additional variable. That would be the formula but, as said, I think it is impossible to add