similar to: marginal distribution wrt time of time series ?

Hi all, I would like to compute ergodic mean using MCMC output from WinBUGS. I tried using CODA package, but it seems that it is not implemented yet. Could anyone help me to compute this? Attached to this email are my output and index files. Kind regards, Raquel -- Raquel Rangel de Meireles Guimar?es Doutoranda em Demografia raquel at cedeplar.ufmg.br

This is not an R question but if anyone can help me, it's much appreciated. Suppose I have a series ( stationary ) y_t and a series x_t ( stationary )and x_t has variance sigma^2_x and epsilon is normal (0, sigma^2_epsilon ) and the two series have the relation y_t = Beta*x_t + epsilon My question is if there are particular values that sigma^2_x and sigma^2_epsilon have to take in

Dear R user, I'm trying to find a solution for optimizing my code. I have to run a 50.000 iteration long simulation and it is absolutely necessary to have an optimized code. I have to do this operation *sum_t ( t(X_t) %*% A %*% X_t )* where X_t is a (d*k) matrix which changes in time and A is a constant in time (d*d) matrix. I have put all my X_t in a three dimensional array X of dimension

Hi all, I'm new with R (and S), and relatively new to statistics (I'm a computer scientist), so I ask sorry in advance if my question is silly. My problem is this: I have a (sample of a) discrete time stochastic process {X_t} and I want to estimate Pr{ X_t | X_{t-l_1}, X_{t-l_2}, ..., X_{t-l_k} } where l_1, l_2, ..., l_k are some fixed time lags. It will be enough for me to compute

I estimate two competing simple regression models, A and B where the LHS is the same in both cases but the predictor is different ( I handle the intercept issue based on other postings I have seen ). I estimate the two models on a weekly basis over 24 weeks. So, I end up with 24 RSquaredAs and 24 RsquaredBs, so essentally 2 time series of Rsquareds. This doesn't have to be necessarily thought

I'm trying to use the following command. arima (x, order = c(p,d,q), seasonal =list(order=c(P,D,Q), period=s) How can I write an estimated seasonal ARIMA model from the outputs. To be specifically, which sign to use? I know R uses a different signs from S plus. Is it correct that the model is: (1-ar1*B-ar2*B^2-...)(1-sar1*B^s-sar2*B^2s-....)(1-B)^d(1-B^s)^D

Hello, I am trying to calculate the autocovariance matrix for any general farima(p,d,q) with p,q > 1. Could anyone give an idea how to implement in R or if there is any package for this? thank you beforehand. Jose.

This has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with R but I was hoping that someone might know because there are obviously a lot of very bright people on this list. Suppose I had a time series of data and at each point in time t, I was calculating x bar + plus minus sigma where x bar was based on a moving window of size n and so was sigma. So, if I was at time t , then x bar t plus minus sigma_t would be

This is a statistics question not an R question. When calculating the sample correlation coefficient cor(x_t,y_t) between say two variables, x_t and y_t t=1,.....n ( one can assume that the variables are in time but I don't think this really matters for the question ), does someone know where I can find any piece of literature that says that each (x_j,y_j) pair has To be independent from the

Hello! I installed the fSeries package to get some farima time-series which i tried with farimaSim, but unfortunately i got always an error. I tried it this way: > farimaSim(n = 1000, model = list(ar = 0.5, d = 0.3, ma = 0.1), method="freq") Error in farimaSim(n = 1000, model = list(ar = 0.5, d = 0.3, ma = 0.1), : ... used in an incorrect context Some ideas? Regards, ___

Hi R-helpers, I'm new to time series modelling, but my requirement seems to fall just outside the capabilities of the arima function in R. I'd like to fit an ARMA model where the variance of the disturbances is a function of some exogenous variable. So something like: Y_t = a_0 + a_1 * Y_(t-1) +...+ a_p * Y_(t-p) + b_1 * e_(t-1) +...+ b_q * e_(t-q) + e_t, where e_t ~ N(0, sigma^2_t),

Hello everybody, I've a question about "autoregressive Regressionmodels". Let Y[1],.....,Y[n], be a time series. Given the model: Y[t] = phi[1]*Y[t-1] + phi[2]*Y[t-1] + ... + phi[p]*Y[t-p] + x_t^T*beta + u_t, where x_t=(x[1t],x[2t],....x[mt]) and beta=(beta[1],...,beta[m]) and u_t~(0,1) I want to estimate the coefficients phi and beta. Are in R any functions or packages for

Hi, sorry for bothering your guys again. I want to simulate 100 AR(1) data with cor(x_t, x_t-1)=rho=0.3. The mean of the first 70 data (x_1 to x_70) is 0 and the mean of the last 30 data (x_71 to x_100) is 2. Can I do it in the following way? x <- arima.sim(list=(ar=0.3), 100) mean <- c(rep(0, 70), rep(2, 30)) xnew <- x+mean If the above code to simulate 100 AR(1) data is right, what

Hello, The "arma" function in the "tseries" package allows estimation of models with specific "ar" and "ma" lags with its "lag" argument. For example: y[t] = a[0] + a[1]y[t-3] +b[1]e[t-2] + e[t] can be estimated with the following specification : arma(y, lag=list(ar=3,ma=2)). Is this possible with the "arima" function in the

Hello, I would like, if it is possible, to compare the effect of a variable across regression models. I have looked around but I haven't found anything. Maybe someone could help? Here is the problem: I am studying the effect of a variable (age) on an outcome (local recurrence: lr). I have built 3 models: - model 1: lr ~ age y = \beta_(a1).age - model 2: lr ~ age + presentation

Hello - Here's what I'm trying to do. I want to fit a time series y with ARMA(1,1) + GARCH(1,1), there are also an exogeneous variable x which I wish to include, so the whole equation looks like: y_t - \phi y_{t-1} = \sigma_t \epsilon_t + \theta \sigma_{t-1} \epsilon_{t-1} + c x_t where \epsilon_t are i.i.d. random variables \sigma_t^2 = omega + \alpha \sigma_{t-1}^2 + \beta

Hi, I need help regarding estimating a linear model where restrictions are imposed on the coefficients. An example is as follows: Y_{t+2}=a1Y_{t+1} + a2 Y_t + b x_t + e_t restriction a1+ a2 =1 Is there a function or a package that can estimate the coefficient of a model like this? I want to estimate the coefficients rather than test them. Thank you for your help Ahmad Abu Hammour --------------

Hi I'm computing the correlation between two time-series x_t and y_t-1 (time-series lagged using the lag(y,-1) function) using the cor() function and the returned value is different from the value of ccf() function at the same lag. Any ideas why this is so? Thanks in advance for any hints. Mihnea [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

Hello, I have a dataset concerning slugs. For each slug, the number of pumps per one time slot was counted. The number of pumps follows Bi(30, p) where p is very small, thus could be approximated by Poisson dist. (# of pumps is very often = 0) The slugs were observed during 12 time slots which are correlated in time as AR(1). The time slots are divided into two categories: Resting time

Dear all, I have a serious problem to solve my model. I study over exploitation of fish in the bay of biscay (france). I know only the level of catch and the fishing effort (see data below) by year. My model is composed by the following equations: * the growth function Gt(St) = r*St*(1-St/sbar) with Gt the growth of each period t r intrinsec growth of the stock sbar carriyng capacity of the