similar to: How to use "lag"?

Dear R-help-archive.. I am trying to figure out how to make arima prediction when I have a process involving multivariate time series input, and one output time series (output is to be predicted) .. (thus strictly speaking its an ARMAX process). I know that the arima function of R was not designed to handle multivariate analysis (there is dse but it doesnt handle arma multivariate analysis, only

Dear R People: Suppose we have a regression model that we will call y.lm We run the Durbin Watson test for autocorrelation and we find that there is positive autocorrelation, and phi = 0.72, say. What is our next step, please? Do we calculate the following yprime_t = y_t - 0.72y_t-1, x1prime_t = x1_t - 0.72x1_t-1, and so on, and re-fit the linear mode? I haven't done this in a while.

Hi all, I want to fit the following model to my data: Y_t= a+bY_(t-1)+cY_(t-2) + Z_t +Z_(t-1) + Z_(t-2) + X_t + M_t i.e. it is an ARMA(2,2) with some additional regressors X and M. [Z_t's are the white noise variables] So, I run the following code: for (i in 1:rep) { index=sample(4,15,replace=T) final<-do.call(rbind,lapply(index,function(i)

Hi R-users, I am using arima to fit a time series. Now I would like to include an intervention component "It (0 before intervention, 1 after)" using different types of impacts, that is, not only trying the simple abrupt permanent impact (yt = w It ) with the xreg option but also trying with a gradual permanent impact (yt= d * yt-1 + w * It ), following the filosophy of Box and Tiao

Hello, I apologize for this question that may has been asked a lot of times but I could not go through it. I create a multivariate time series containing NA values. I want to compute a linear regression and obtain a time serie for both residuals and fitted values. I have tried the trick ts.intersect, without success. Could you help me out of this? #### Example: y<-ts(1:10+rnorm(10))

This is not an R question but if anyone can help me, it's much appreciated. Suppose I have a series ( stationary ) y_t and a series x_t ( stationary )and x_t has variance sigma^2_x and epsilon is normal (0, sigma^2_epsilon ) and the two series have the relation y_t = Beta*x_t + epsilon My question is if there are particular values that sigma^2_x and sigma^2_epsilon have to take in

Ok I made Jarque-Bera test to the residuals (merv.reg$residual) library(tseries) jarque.bera.test(merv.reg$residual) X-squared = 1772.369, df = 2, p-value = < 2.2e-16 And I reject the null hypotesis (H0: merv.reg$residual are normally distributed) So I know that: 1 - merv.reg$residual aren't independently distributed (Box-Ljung test) 2 - merv.reg$residual aren't indentically

I am a beginner in using R and I need help in the interpretation of AR result by R. I used 12 observations for my AR(2) model and it turned out the intercept showed 5.23 while first and second AR coefficients showed 0.40 and 0.46. It is because my raw data are in million so it seems the intercept is too small and it doesn't make sense. Did i make any mistake in my code? My code is as follows:

Hi, I am trying to understand exactly what xreg does in arima. The documentation for xreg says:"xreg Optionally, a vector or matrix of external regressors, which must have the same number of rows as x." What does this mean with regard to the action of xreg in arima? Apparently somehow xreg made the following two arima fit equivalent in R: arima(x, order=c(1,1,1), xreg=1:length(x)) is

I am using arima to develop a time series regression model, I am using arima b/c I have autocorrelated errors. Several of my independent variables are categorical and I have coded them as factors . When I run ARIMA I don't get any warning or error message, but I do not seem to get estimates for all the levels of the factor. Can/how does ARIMA handle factors in xreg? here is some example

Dear R users, I have an unbalanced panel with an average of I=100 individuals and a total of T=1370 time intervals, i.e. T>>I. So far, I have been using the plm package. I wish to estimate a FE model like: res<-plm(x~c+v, data=pdata_frame, effect="twoways", model="within", na.action=na.omit) ?where c varies over i and t, and v represents an exogenous impact on x

Dear all, I know that my question is somewhat special but I tried several times to solve the problems on my own but I am unfortunately not able to compute the following test statistic using the quantreg package. Well, here we go, I appreciate every little comment or help as I really do not know how to tell R what I want it to do^^ My situation is as follows: I have a data set containing a

This is a statistics question not an R question. When calculating the sample correlation coefficient cor(x_t,y_t) between say two variables, x_t and y_t t=1,.....n ( one can assume that the variables are in time but I don't think this really matters for the question ), does someone know where I can find any piece of literature that says that each (x_j,y_j) pair has To be independent from the

As I am reading ?arima, only NA entries in the argument fixed= imports. The following seems to indicate otherwise: x <- arima.sim(model=list(ar=0.8), n=100) + (1:100)/50 > t <- 1:100 > mod1 <- lm(x ~ t) > > init1 <- c(0, coef(mod1)[2]) > fixed1 <- c(as.numeric(NA), 0) > > arima(x, order=c(1,0,0), xreg=t, include.mean=FALSE, init=init1, fixed=fixed1)

hi: you should probably send below to R-Sig-Finance because there are some econometrics people over there who could also possibly give you a good answer and may not see this email ? Also, there's package called mar ( I think that's the name ) that may do what you want ? Finally, I don't know how to do it but I think there are ways of converting a multivariate arima into the

Hello all, I''m having fun again with the arima function. This time I read in: http://www.stat.pitt.edu/stoffer/tsa2/R_time_series_quick_fix.htm <<It has recently been suggested (by a reliable source) that using xreg in arima() does NOT fit an ARMAX model [insert slap head icon here]. This will be investigated as soon as time permits.>> (by R.H. Shumway & D.S. Stoffer)

Hello I want to fit an AR model were two of the coefficients are fixed to zero (the second and third ar-coefficients). I used the "arima" function with the "fixed" argument but the ar3 coefficient is not set to zero: ============================================== > arima(Y, order=c(4,0,0), xreg=1:23, fixed=c(NA,0,0,NA,NA,NA)) Call: arima(x = Y, order = c(4, 0, 0), xreg =

Hi all, Can I run a cointegrating regression, for example delta Xt=a1(Yt-1-cXt-1)+E1t and delta Yt=-b1(Yt-1-cXt-1)+E2t with R were Xt and Yt are non stationary time series at t a,b,c are parameters and E1t and E2t are error terms at t. Yt-Xt is stationary Any suggestions are welcome. Best regards, /fb -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.- r-help mailing

Hello! I have a data set: set.seed(123) y<-data.frame(week=seq(as.Date("2010-01-03"), as.Date("2011-01-31"),by="week")) y$var1<-c(1,2,3,round(rnorm(54),1)) y$var2<-c(10,20,30,round(rnorm(54),1)) # All I need is to create lagged variables for var1 and var2. I looked around a bit and found several ways of doing it. They all seem quite complicated - while in

Hi all, I'm new with R (and S), and relatively new to statistics (I'm a computer scientist), so I ask sorry in advance if my question is silly. My problem is this: I have a (sample of a) discrete time stochastic process {X_t} and I want to estimate Pr{ X_t | X_{t-l_1}, X_{t-l_2}, ..., X_{t-l_k} } where l_1, l_2, ..., l_k are some fixed time lags. It will be enough for me to compute