similar to: Question on Simultaneous Equations & Forecasting

Frances, I would not advise Gauss-Seidel for non linear models. Can be quite tricky, slow and diverge. You can write your model as a non linear system of equations and use one of the nonlinear solvers. See the section "Root Finding" in the task view NumericalMathematics suggesting three packages (BB, nleqslv and ktsolve). These package are certainly able to handle medium sized models.

Hi Frances, I have not touched the system.fit package for quite some time, but to solve your problem the following two pointers might be helpful: 1) Recast your model in the revised form, i.e., include your identity directly into your reaction functions, if possible. 2) For solving your model, you can employ the Gau?-Seidel method (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauss%E2%80%93Seidel_method).

Who was speaking about non-linear models in the first place??? The Klein-Model(s) and pretty much all simultaneous equation models encountered in macro-econometrics are linear and/or can contain linear approximations to non-linear relationships, e.g., production functions of the Cobb-Douglas type. Best, Bernhard -----Urspr?ngliche Nachricht----- Von: Berend Hasselman [mailto:bhh at xs4all.nl]

> On 13 Jul 2017, at 12:55, Pfaff, Bernhard Dr. <Bernhard_Pfaff at fra.invesco.com> wrote: > > Who was speaking about non-linear models in the first place??? > The Klein-Model(s) and pretty much all simultaneous equation models encountered in macro-econometrics are linear That's really not true. Klein model is linear but Oseibonsu did not say that explicitly. "Klein

Dear Helplist, I want to produce forecasts from a structural equation model. With the SEM package the model setup and its estimation is possible. However, I have not figured out how to obtain ex ante forecasts, i.e. applying the Gauss-Seidel algorithm to the estimated structural equations for provided values of the exogenous variables (i.e.: y_t = -inv(A)*B*x_t). Does anyone know if the there is

Hello, Is there a package or sample code that shows how to do ex ante forecasts with a macroeconomic structural equations model? I looked at the "sem" package, which lets you estimate e.g. Klein's model, but I'm not sure how to make simulations using the full set of equations, including the identities. Thank you, Ronaldo Carpio rncarpio at yahoo.com

Hello, In order to do a future forecast based on my past Time Series data sets (salespricesproduct1, salespricesproduct2, etc..), I used arima() functions with different parameter combinations which give the smallest AIC. I also used auto.arima() which finds the parameters with the smallest AICs. But unfortuanetly I could not get satisfactory forecast() results, even sometimes catastrophic

I'm currently working with some time series data with the xts package, and would like to generate a forecast 12 periods into the future. There are limited observations, so I am unable to use an ARIMA model for the forecast. Here's the regression setup, after converting everything from zoo objects to vectors. hire.total.lag1 <- lag(hire.total, lag=-1, na.pad=TRUE) lm.model <-

Hello everyone, I'm doing some benchmark comparing Arima [1] and SVR on time series data. I'm using an out-of-sample one-step-ahead prediction from Arima using the "fitted" method [2]. Do someone know how to have a two-steps-ahead forecast timeseries from Arima? Thanks, Matteo Bertini [1] http://robjhyndman.com/software/forecast [2] AirPassengers example on page 5

Couldn't find this in the archives. I'm fitting a series of historical weather-related data, but would like to use the latest values to forecast. So let's say that I'm using 1970-2000 to fit a model (using fourier terms and arima/auto.arima), but now would like to use the last X values to predict tomorrow's weather. I'm at a loss. All the functions I've come across

Hello, does anyone know of any R routines capable of whats called Hierarchical Forecasting, reconciling the different hierarchies. Example: A top down forecast where the corporate forecast is created and then all the regions within the corporate entity are also forecasted, with the constraint they sum to the corporate forecast.

Hello everybody! I have an ARIMA model for a time series. This model was obtained through an auto.arima function. The resulting model is a ARIMA(2,1,4)(2,0,1)[12] with drift (my time series has monthly data). Then I perform a 12-step ahead forecast to the cited model... so far so good... but when I look the plot of my forecast I see that the result is really far from the behavior of my time

Hi all, We followed some books and sample codes and did some EMM estimation, only to find it won't be able to generate forecast. This is because in the stochastic volatility models we are estimating, the volatilities are latent variables, and we want to forecast 1-step ahead or h-step ahead volatilities. So it is nice to have the system estimated, but we couldn't get it to forecast at

1. This is an imaginary data on monthly outcomes of 2 years and I want to forecast the outcome for next 12 months of next year. data Data1; input Yr Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec; datalines; 2008 12 13 12 14 13 12 11 15 10 12 12 12 2009 12 13 12 14 13 12 11 15 10 12 12 12 ; run; I converted the above data into the below format to use it in R as it was giving error: asking

Hello everybody! I have a problem when I try to perform a forecast of an ARIMA model produced by an auto.arima function. Here is what I'm doing: c<-auto.arima(fil[[1]],start.p=0,start.q=0,start.P=0,start.Q=0,stepwise=TRUE,stationary=FALSE,trace=TRUE) # fil[[1]] is time series of monthly data ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)[12] with drift : 1725.272 ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)[12] with drift

Dear All, I wanted to forecast Inflation for Indian Economy. please send what techniques to be used after the variable selection. WPI, CPI, Money supply, IIP, Interest rate and so on..How i can use R for the same [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

I have a data frame that reads client ID date transcations 323232 11/1/2010 22 323232 11/2/2010 0 323232 11/3/2010 missing 121212 11/10/2010 32 121212 11/11/2010 15 ................................. I want to order the rows by client ID and date and using a black-box forecasting method create the data fcst(client,date of forecast, date for which forecast applies). Assume that I

Good day all, I'm trying to plot a continuous line plot, which is followed by two forecast points eg. one forecast point is 12 months out, and another 24 months out from the last date of the line plot. In my attempts so far, the second plot (the forecast points) is scaled against a new axis scale, thus the two plots are not directly comparable (I need the forecast points to be scaled

Hi all, I am playing with some companies' balance sheets and income statements and want to apply what I've just learned from Stats class to see if I can forecast the companies earnings, sales and gross margin in the short term (3rd and 4th Quarter), mid-term (2009) and long term (2011, etc. ) I pulled up some data from companies' financial statements over the past a few years. The

hello, I have a question about making n step ahead forecasts in cases where test and validation sets are availiable. For instance, I would like to make one step ahead forecasts on the WWWusage data so I hold out the last 10 observations as the validation set and fit an ARIMA model on the first 90 observations. I then use a for loop to sequentially add 9 of the holdout observations to make 1