similar to: Fitting distributions to financial data using volatility model to estimate VaR

Hi, I was trying to repeat the estimation of threshold GARCH models from the book "Analysis of Financial Time Series" by Ruey S. Tsay, and I was succesfull, but I had to use "for" loop, which is quite slow. The loop is necessary, since you need to calculate recursive sequence. Is there a faster way to do this in R, without using loops? The model is such: r_t = \mu + \alpha_2

Hi, I want to fit a mean and variance model jointly. For example I might want to fit an AR(2)-GARCH(1,1) model i.e. r_t = constant_term1 + b*r_t-1 + c*r_t-2 + a_t where a_t = sigma_t*epsilon_t where sigma^2_t = constant_term2 + p*sigma^2_t-1 + q*a^2_t-1 i.e. R estimates a constant_term1, b, c, constant_term2, p, q TIA Aditya

Hi, I want to calculate the Value at Risk with using some distirbutions and a volatility model. I use the following data(http://uploadeasy.net/upload/cdm3n.rar) which are losses (negative returns) of a company of approx. the last 10 years. So I want to calculated the Value at Risk, this is nothing else than the quantile. Since I have losses I consider the right tail of the distribution. Consider

Hi, i am working in the forecast of the daily price crude . The last prices of this data are the following: 100.60 101.47 100.20 100.06 98.68 101.28 101.05 102.13 101.70 98.27 101.00 100.50 100.03 102.23 102.68 103.32 102.67 102.23 102.14 101.25 101.11 99.90 98.53 96.76 96.12 96.54 96.30 95.92 95.92 93.45 93.71 96.42 93.99 93.76 95.24 95.63 95.95 95.83 95.65

This has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with R but I was hoping that someone might know because there are obviously a lot of very bright people on this list. Suppose I had a time series of data and at each point in time t, I was calculating x bar + plus minus sigma where x bar was based on a moving window of size n and so was sigma. So, if I was at time t , then x bar t plus minus sigma_t would be

I would like to know if there is a way to test no correlaction in time series ? cov(r_t, r_t-1)=0 And r_t are homoscedastik and independent. Thanks [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

Dear R users, suppose we have a random walk such as: v_t+1 = v_t + e_t+1 where e_t is a normal IID noise pocess with mean = m and standard deviation = sd and v_t is the fundamental value of a stock. Now suppose I want a trading strategy to be: x_t+1 = c(v_t – p_t) where c is a costant. I know, from the paper where this equations come from (Farmer and Joshi, The price dynamics of common

Hello - Here's what I'm trying to do. I want to fit a time series y with ARMA(1,1) + GARCH(1,1), there are also an exogeneous variable x which I wish to include, so the whole equation looks like: y_t - \phi y_{t-1} = \sigma_t \epsilon_t + \theta \sigma_{t-1} \epsilon_{t-1} + c x_t where \epsilon_t are i.i.d. random variables \sigma_t^2 = omega + \alpha \sigma_{t-1}^2 + \beta

Hello, i want to estimate a complex GARCH-model (see below). http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/file/n4112396/GJR_Garch.png W stands for the Day of the Week Dummies. r stands for returns of stock market indices. I stands for the GJR-term. I need some help with three problems: 1.) implementation of the GJR-term in the variance equation 2.) compute robust covariance matrix

Dear r-users! I have another question regarding the dlm package and I would be very happy if someone could give me a hint! I am using the dlm package to get estimates for an endogenous rate of capacity utilization over time. The general form of a state space model is (1) b_t = G * b_t-1 + w_t w_t ~ N(0,W) (2) y_t= A' * x_t + H' * b_t + v_t v_t ~ N(0,V) (Hamilton 1984: 372) The

This script below pulls yahoo data via a function in quantmod, then massages the data around to forumalate a 3D graph with RGL library, attached is a ggplot to show the data i'm trying to create a surface with in separate line geoms . the issue is that the 3D graph looks very ugly and cut up because of the limited quantities of points on the front month expirations.. can anyone tell me whats

Hi all, My problem is as follows: I want to run a loop which calculates two values and stores them in vectors r and rv, respectively. They're calculated from some vector x with length a multiple of 7. x <- c(1:2058) I need to difference the values but it would be incorrect to difference it all in x, it has to be broken up first. I've tried the following: r <- c(1:294)*0 rv

Dear everyone, i`m a german economics student, writing my master´s thesis about "Multivariate Volatility Models". After having read about theoretical aspects of Multivariate GARCH ans Stochastic Volatility Models, I would like to compare DCC-GARCH and DC-SV with help of an empirical application. I figuered out that one has to use MCMC-simulation-methods for that. Some days ago I

Dear All, i want to use garch model in return of stock. and the data should presence volatility cluster (Heteroscedasticity). Do you know how to test volatility cluster (the presence of heteroscedasticity) in series data of stock return in R? Is it using Langrange Multiplier (LM) ARCH test? what package i should use? I really need the help. Thanks for the attention. Eko A P

Hey, I'm trying to implement a GARCH model with Johnson-Su innovations in order to simulate returns of financial asset. The model should look like this: r_t = alpha + lambda*sqrt(h_t) + sqrt(h_t)*epsilon_t h_t = alpha0 + alpha1*epsilon_(t-1)^2 + beta1 * h_(t-1). Alpha refers to a risk-free return, lambda to the risk-premium. I've implemented it like this: #specification of the model

Dear All, I have loaded package(tseries), but when I run predict.garch(...) R tells me could not find function "predict.garch", however ?predict.garch shows me something. I am confused about this. How can I forecast garch volatility? I have tried: predict(...,n.ahead=...),give me fitted value predict(...,n),give me NA,NA

Dear all, I am using GARCH (1,1) model to simulate volatility. But seems that I am missing something about how it works in R. The following code produces negative results, though vola cannot be. What is wrong here? library("fSeries") library("fGarch") spec = garchSpec(model = list(omega = 0.01, alpha = 0.13, beta = 0.86)) gat <- garchSim(spec, n = 10) Thanks a lot!

Insightful are now taking bookings for the Advanced Time Series Modelling course to be held at Carlton Terrace in London SW1 on 20th September. Advanced workshop Extract for Financial Time Series Modelling : The Advanced Time Series Course focuses on the most up to date theory and its application around the following topics (note that not all topics will be covered during the workshop) 1.

Hey guys, i want to calculate the continuasly compounded returns for stock prices. Formula for CCR: R_t = ln(P_t/P_{t-1})*100 With R: First i have to modify the vectors, so that they have the same length and we start at the second observation. log(GOOG1[-1]/GOOG1[1:length(GOOG1)-1])*100 That does work with normal vectors. My Questions: 1) I want to use this for stock prices. so i

Hi, I am trying to write the Realized GARCH model with order (1,1) The model can be describe bellow: r_t = sqrt( h_t) * z_t logh_t = w + b*logh_(t-1) + r*logx_(t-1) logx_t = c + q*logh_t + t1*z_t +t2*(z_t ^2 -1) + u_t and z follow N(0,1) , u follow N(0, sigma.u^2) But I'm troubled with the simulation check for my code. After I simulate data from the model and estimate the data, I