similar to: simulation

I am trying to make the following Kalman filter equations work and therefore produce their graphs. v_t=y_t - a_t a_t+1=a_t+K_t*v_t F_t=P_t+sigma.squared.epsilon P_t+1=P_t*(1-K_t)+sigma.squared.eta K_t=P_t/F_t Given: a_1=0,P_1=10^7,sigma.squared.epsilon=15099, sigma.squared.eta=1469.1 I have attached my code,which of course doesnt work.It produces NAs for the Fs,Ks and the a. Can somebody tell me

Dear r-users! I have another question regarding the dlm package and I would be very happy if someone could give me a hint! I am using the dlm package to get estimates for an endogenous rate of capacity utilization over time. The general form of a state space model is (1) b_t = G * b_t-1 + w_t w_t ~ N(0,W) (2) y_t= A' * x_t + H' * b_t + v_t v_t ~ N(0,V) (Hamilton 1984: 372) The

Dear R-users, I am trying to estimate a state space model of the form (1) b_t = G * b_t-1 + w_t w_t ~ N(0,W) (2) y_t= A' * x_t + H' * b_t + v_t v_t ~ N(0,V) (Hamilton 1984: 372) In particular my estimation in state space form looks like (3) a3_t = 1 * a3_t-1 + w_t w_t ~ N(0,W) (4) g_t = (a1, a2) * (1, P_t)' + u_t * a3_t + v_t v_t ~ N(0,V) where g_t is the

Hey guys, i want to calculate the continuasly compounded returns for stock prices. Formula for CCR: R_t = ln(P_t/P_{t-1})*100 With R: First i have to modify the vectors, so that they have the same length and we start at the second observation. log(GOOG1[-1]/GOOG1[1:length(GOOG1)-1])*100 That does work with normal vectors. My Questions: 1) I want to use this for stock prices. so i

Dear all, I'd like to discuss about a possible bug in function StructTS of stats package. It seems that the function returns wrong value of the log-likelihood, as the added constant to the relevant part of the log-likelihood is misspecified. Here is an simple example: > data(Nile) > fit <- StructTS(Nile, type = "level") > fit$loglik [1] -367.5194 When computing the

I would like to know if there is a way to test no correlaction in time series ? cov(r_t, r_t-1)=0 And r_t are homoscedastik and independent. Thanks [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

Hi, After updating to R-3.0 beta r62328, I get the following: > install.packages("Biobase", type="source", repos="http://george2/BBS/2.12/bioc") Error in do.call(op, list(v_c, v_t[[op]])) : could not find function "R (>=2.15.1)" The problem can be fixed by adding a space after >= in the offending package's DESCRIPTION file and re-generating

Hi, I am trying to figure how to use dlm with constant terms (possibly time-dependent) added to both equations y_t = c_t + F_t\theta_t + v_t \theta_t = d_t + G_t\theta_{t-1} + w_t, in the way that S-PLUS Finmetrics does? Is there any straightforward way to transform the above to the default setup? Thanks, Tsvetan -------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: If received in

Hi, Does R have any functions implementing such multinomial regression: (S_t^A,S_t^B)~MN(N_t-Y_{t-1},P_t^A,P_t^B) where MN(n,p_1,p_2) is multinomial distribution with parameters n, p_1, p_2. Here P_t^A and P_t^B are nonlinear functions from predictor variables and parameters which need to be estimated. Here A and B are used for notation, they are not parameters. My second question is about

Hi, I want to fit a mean and variance model jointly. For example I might want to fit an AR(2)-GARCH(1,1) model i.e. r_t = constant_term1 + b*r_t-1 + c*r_t-2 + a_t where a_t = sigma_t*epsilon_t where sigma^2_t = constant_term2 + p*sigma^2_t-1 + q*a^2_t-1 i.e. R estimates a constant_term1, b, c, constant_term2, p, q TIA Aditya

Hi all, My problem is as follows: I want to run a loop which calculates two values and stores them in vectors r and rv, respectively. They're calculated from some vector x with length a multiple of 7. x <- c(1:2058) I need to difference the values but it would be incorrect to difference it all in x, it has to be broken up first. I've tried the following: r <- c(1:294)*0 rv

This is not an R question but if anyone can help me, it's much appreciated. Suppose I have a series ( stationary ) y_t and a series x_t ( stationary )and x_t has variance sigma^2_x and epsilon is normal (0, sigma^2_epsilon ) and the two series have the relation y_t = Beta*x_t + epsilon My question is if there are particular values that sigma^2_x and sigma^2_epsilon have to take in

Dear R users, I have been trying to obtain the MLE of the following model state 0: y_t = 2 + 0.5 * y_{t-1} + e_t state 1: y_t = 0.5 + 0.9 * y_{t-1} + e_t where e_t ~ iidN(0,1) transition probability between states is 0.2 I've generated some fake data and tried to estimate the parameters using the constrOptim() function but I can't get sensible answers using it. I've tried using

Dear R-help-archive.. I am trying to figure out how to make arima prediction when I have a process involving multivariate time series input, and one output time series (output is to be predicted) .. (thus strictly speaking its an ARMAX process). I know that the arima function of R was not designed to handle multivariate analysis (there is dse but it doesnt handle arma multivariate analysis, only

Dear Users, I would like to simulate an AR(1) (y_t=ct1+y_t-1+e_t) model in R where the innovations are supposed to follow a t-GARCH(1,1) proccess. By t-GARCH I want to mean that: e_t=n_t*sqrt(h_t) and h_t=ct2+a*(e_t)^2+b*h_t-1. where n_t is a random variable with t-Student distribution. If someone could give some guidelines, I can going developing the model. I did it in matlab, but the loops

I am having a problem with the package SSPIR. The code below illustrates it. I keep getting the message: "Error in y - f : non-conformable arrays." I tried to tweak the code below in many different ways, for example, substituting rbind for cbind, and sometimes I get a different error message, but I could not find a variation of this code that would work. Any help will be greatly

Hi all, I'm working on a term structure estimation using state-space modeling for 1, 2 and 3 factor models. When I started to read the functions on R, I got to the function ss on the library sspir. From what I understood this function is similar to SsfFit from S-PLUS. But for my models purpose there is something left to be desired. Its formulation follow these equations: *Y_t = F_t^T *

Dear all, I am currently trying to use the "dlm" package for Kalman filtering. My model is very simple: Y_t = F'_t Theta_t + v_t Theta_t = G_t Theta_t-1 + w_t v_t ~ N(0,V_t) = N(0,V) w_t ~ N(0,W_t) = N(0,W) Y_ t is a univariate time series (1x1) F_t is a vector of factor returns (Kx1) Theta_t is the state vector (Kx1) G_t is the identity matrix My first

Dear R Users, I am new to state-space modeling. I am using SSPIR package for Kalman Filter. I have a data set containing one dependent variable and 7 independent variables with 250 data points. I want to use Kalman Filter for forecast the future values of the dependent variable using a multiple regression framework. I have used ssm function to produce the state space (SS)

Hi, I need help regarding estimating a linear model where restrictions are imposed on the coefficients. An example is as follows: Y_{t+2}=a1Y_{t+1} + a2 Y_t + b x_t + e_t restriction a1+ a2 =1 Is there a function or a package that can estimate the coefficient of a model like this? I want to estimate the coefficients rather than test them. Thank you for your help Ahmad Abu Hammour --------------