similar to: Help with kalman-filterd betas using the dlm package

I have built a Kalman Filter model for flu forecasting as shown below. Y - Target Variable X1 - Predictor1 X2 - Predictor2 While forecasting into the future, I will NOT have data for all three variables. So, I am predicting X1 and X2 using two Kalman filters. The code is below x1.model <- dlmModSeas(52) + dlmModPoly(1, dV=5, dW=10) x2.model <- dlmModSeas(52) + dlmModPoly(1, dV=10,

Hi All, I have a problem trying to forecast using the dlm package, can anyone offer any advise? I setup my problem as follows, (following the manual as much as possible) data for example to run code CostUSD <- c(27.24031,32.97051, 38.72474, 22.78394, 28.58938, 49.85973, 42.93949, 35.92468) library(dlm) buildFun <- function(x) { dlmModPoly(1, dV = exp(x[1]), dW = exp(x[2])) } fit <-

Dear R-help! I have encountered strange behaviour (that is, far-off filtering, smoothing and forecast distributions under certain conditions) in the `dlm` package by Giovanni Petris. Here is an example: I use the annual hotel bookings time series data, which I model using a second order polinomial DLM. First I perform the analysis with the data in logarithmic form and everything seems to be

Hi Group, I'm trying to build a model to predict a product's sale price. I'm researching the dlm package. Looks like I should use dlmModPoly, dlmMLE, dlmFilter, dlmSmooth, and finally dlmForecast. I'm looking at the Nile River example and I have a few questions: 1. If I only want to predict future sale price based on observed sale price, I should use a univariate model,

Dear all, I am currently trying to use the "dlm" package for Kalman filtering. My model is very simple: Y_t = F'_t Theta_t + v_t Theta_t = G_t Theta_t-1 + w_t v_t ~ N(0,V_t) = N(0,V) w_t ~ N(0,W_t) = N(0,W) Y_ t is a univariate time series (1x1) F_t is a vector of factor returns (Kx1) Theta_t is the state vector (Kx1) G_t is the identity matrix My first

Hello, I would be very grateful if somebody more knowledgeable then me could assist me in the following. I have two (three actually but for simplicity I will say two) models which I would like to fit jointly as a state space object. Here are the equations: (1) w = a1 + b1*(p) + e1 a1 = a1[t-1] + g1 g1 = g1[t-1] + e2 b1 = b1[t-1] + e3 (2) d = a2 + b2*(w) + e3 a2 = a2[t-1] + e4 b2 = b2[t-1] + e5

  Hello All,   I am working with dlm for the purpose of estimating and forecasting with a Kalman filter model. I have succesfully set up the model and started generating results. Of course, I need to somehow be sure that the results make sense. Without any apparent target to compare with, my natural selection is the results by odinary least square. The idea being that if I choose a diffuse prior,

Dear all: Greetings! I am trying to replicate a simple state space model in R, using the package 'dlm'. This model has two observation equations and three state equations. Each observation equation represents structural shocks based on SVAR for country i, where i=1 to 2. The structural shocks (S1 and S2) are to be decomposed into common (sv1) and country-specific (sv2, sv3) shocks. We

Hi, I am studying Kalman Filter and it seems to be difficult for me to apply the filter on a simple ARMA. It is easy to construct the state-space model, for instance: dlmModARMA(ar=c(0.4,-0.2),ma=c(0.2,-0.1, sigma2=1) but applying the dlmFilter on it, it doesn't work... I don't know if my problem is clear but if anyone has already worked on Kalman filter, it could be great to advise me!

Hi, i'm beginner in Bayesian methods, I'm reading the documentation about dlm package and kalman filters, I'm looking for a example of transformation of ARIMA in a state space equivalent to use the dlm package and calcualte the hyperparameters. Someone can help me about it?. If it's possible with a arima(1,0,1) example, or more complex model. While I have more examples best for me.

Dear R users, I am trying to use the dlm package, and in particular the dlmBSample function. For some reason that I am not able to understand, this function does not work properly and the plot of the result does not make sense, while dlmFilter works perfectly. I think that my_mod is correct, because the output of my_dlmFilter$mod is fine. Where is my mistake or my misunderstanding? This is the

Hello all, I am working with the dlm package, specifcially doing a dlm multivariate Y linear regression using dlmModReg and dlmFilter and dlmSmooth... I have altereted the inputs into dlmModReg to make them time-varying using JFF, JW etc. How do I track the results of the time varying system matrices? For example what I am really interested in is JW - my system variance matrix for each time

Dear R users, Just to clarify. I am not offering to pay someone to do my Dissertation. These 4-5 commands on Kalman Filter would be only a tiny part of my 10,000 words dissertation. A part that even after trying for a few days, I am still stuck on. I am offering ?50, just to say thanks. Regards -- View this message in context:

Dear All, Could anyone?give me a hand?to suggest few packages in R to running Kalman prediction and filtration ? Thanks Fir

Hi all! I'm sure this must have been asked many times before but here goes anyway. I'm looking for a kalman filter in R for ar(i)ma time series. I'm sure there must be one around but it does not seem to be in either ts or tseries packages? Any suggestions welcome. Thanks Gerard Keogh The information in this email, and any attachments transmitted with it, are confidential and are

help.search("Kalman") says to look at help(KalmanLike, package=ts). Andy -----Original Message----- From: Mohamed A. Kerasha [mailto:mohamed at engr.uconn.edu] Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:27 AM To: r-help at stat.math.ethz.ch Subject: [R] Kalman Filter Hi all, Does any one know if there is Kalman Filter code or library in R. Thanks, Mohamed.

Hola, Estoy intentando implementar el filtro de Kalman para un modelo de series de tiempo que estoy haciendo, me gustaría saber si alguien me puede colaborar ya que soy principiante en R. Muchas gracias! Cordialmente, JAVIER SANTIAGO PARRA RAMOS INGENIERO DE SISTEMAS [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

Hi, I'm trying to use the kalman filter to estimate the variable drift of a random walk, given that I have a vector of time series data. Anyone have any thoughts on how to do this in R? Thanks, Alex [[alternative HTML version deleted]]

Dear all, I am pleased to announce the CRAN release of a new package called 'KFAS' - Kalman filter and smoother. The package KFAS contains functions of multivariate Kalman filter, smoother, simulation smoother and forecasting. It uses univariate approach algorithm (aka sequential processing), which is faster than normal method, and it also allows mean square prediction error matrix Ft to

Dear all, I am pleased to announce the CRAN release of a new package called 'KFAS' - Kalman filter and smoother. The package KFAS contains functions of multivariate Kalman filter, smoother, simulation smoother and forecasting. It uses univariate approach algorithm (aka sequential processing), which is faster than normal method, and it also allows mean square prediction error matrix Ft to