similar to: alpha_1 + beta_1 >1 in GARCH(1,1)

Hi, i am working in the forecast of the daily price crude . The last prices of this data are the following: 100.60 101.47 100.20 100.06 98.68 101.28 101.05 102.13 101.70 98.27 101.00 100.50 100.03 102.23 102.68 103.32 102.67 102.23 102.14 101.25 101.11 99.90 98.53 96.76 96.12 96.54 96.30 95.92 95.92 93.45 93.71 96.42 93.99 93.76 95.24 95.63 95.95 95.83 95.65

Hello, I have a rather complex problem... I will have to explain everything in detail because I cannot solve it by myself...i just ran out of ideas. So here is what I want to do: I take quotes of two indices - S&P500 and DJ. And my first aim is to estimate coefficients of the DCC-GARCH model for them. This is how I do it: library(tseries) p1 = get.hist.quote(instrument =

Hello Following some standard textbooks on ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) (e.g. Ruey Tsay's Analysis of Financial Time Series), I try to write an R program to estimate the key parameters of an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model for Intel's stock returns. For some random reason, I cannot decipher what is wrong with my R program. The R package fGarch already gives me the answer, but my customized function

Hello I want to predict the future values of time series with Garch When I specified my model like this: library(fGarch) ret <- diff(log(x))*100 fit = garchFit(~arma(1,0,0)+garch(1, 1), data =ret) predict(fit, n.ahead = 10) meanForecast meanError standardDeviation 1 0.01371299 0.03086350 0.03305819 2 0.01211893 0.03094519 0.03350248

Hallo, i want to fit a GARCH model with a extern regressor (without arma components), so i found the following function in package fGarch. I tryed out a lot of things but usually I get this Error. > garchFit(formula=y~x, formula.var=~garch(1,1),data=w) Error in .garchFit(formula.mean, formula.var, series = x, init.rec, delta, : Algorithm only supported for mci Recursion I think i use the

Hi everybody, I'm trying to fit a Garch(1,1) process to the DAX returns. My data consists of about 2300 10day-logreturns in chronologically descending order (see attachment). But if I use the garch function I get a very high alpha_1 and a quite low beta, which doesn't make that much sense. I think I am missing something, but have no idea what it might be. I'd appreciate it a lot

Hello, I have a univariate data set, and the unconditional variance is 1. I would like to fit a GARCH(1,1) model to the data set with a constraint: \omega (the constant parameter in GARCH(1,1)) is equal to 1-\alpha-\beta. So the unconditional variance can be controled to be \omega /(1-\alpha-\beta) = 1. I was using garchFit (fGARCH package) but did not find the way to control. Any help?

Dear R experts, I am trying to estimate an ARMA 2,2 model with garch errors. I used the following code on R 2.9. #library library(fGarch) #data data1<-ts(read.table("C:/Users/falcon/Desktop/Time Series/exports/goods1.csv"), start=c(1992,1), frequency=12) head(data1) #garch garchFit(formula.mean= ~arma(2,2),formula.var=~garch(1,1), data=data1) but get this error: >

Hello - Here's what I'm trying to do. I want to fit a time series y with ARMA(1,1) + GARCH(1,1), there are also an exogeneous variable x which I wish to include, so the whole equation looks like: y_t - \phi y_{t-1} = \sigma_t \epsilon_t + \theta \sigma_{t-1} \epsilon_{t-1} + c x_t where \epsilon_t are i.i.d. random variables \sigma_t^2 = omega + \alpha \sigma_{t-1}^2 + \beta

Dear all, I'm using garchFit from fSeries package and I am not getting the desired results (error message : could not find function "garchFit" ). Would you please advise as to how I can build an ARIMA(p, d, q) - GARCH(p,q) model using R see the attached data and R-output. Thanking you in advance Kind regards Mangalani Peter Makananisa Statistical Analyst South

Hi, i am unable to install the rugarch package. More than that i do not even find this package in my list of possible packages. Its possible than the name has changed, or the package is not longer availiable? Is there a similar package avaliable for garch modelling except the fGarch what i am using now? many Thanks Roland -- View this message in context:

Hello, I have a few questions concerning the DCC-GARCH model and its programming in R. So here is what I want to do: I take quotes of two indices - S&P500 and DJ. And the aim is to estimate coefficients of the DCC-GARCH model for them. This is how I do it: library(tseries) p1 = get.hist.quote(instrument = "^gspc",start = "2005-01-07",end =

Hello, I’ve fitted a Garch(2,1) model with function 'garchFit()' from the package 'fGarch': > m1 <- garchFit(formula = ~garch(2,1),data = X,trace = F) * See 'summary(m1)' OUTPUT BELOW * PROBLEM: My alpha1 term is not significant and I would like to make a NEW model, say m2, that does not contain alpha1, but I am not sure how to specify this with the garchFit()

Hi, Is there anyway to extract the AIC and BIC from the summary statistics in fGarch package? g <- garchfit(data) summary(g) will display the AIC and BIC, but I can't find a way to store those in a variable (in order to loop through different parameters, investigating their effect). Thank you, David Rubins

Hello, I'm quite new to R but tried to learn as much as possible in the last few months. My problem is that I would like to estimate the model of Leon et al. (2005). I have shortly summarised the most important equations in the following pdf file: http://hannes.fedorapeople.org/leon2005.pdf My main question is now how could I introduce these two additional terms into the Likelihood

I need to change the code of Garch to the FCGARCH (a non-linear multi-regime GARCH). I don't know nothing about R. I'd like to know how can I get the code of the garch in order to change it and make the fit for the FC-GARCH. Any non-linear code will be helpfull because if doesn't help in the programming it helps in getting familiar with R. Thank you Renato -- PhD Student Renato

Hi, Although my doubt is pretty,as i m not from stats background i am not sure how to proceed on this. Currently i am doing a forecasting.I used ARIMA to forecast and time series was volatile i used garchFit for residuals. How to use the output of Garch to correct the forecasted values from ARIMA. Here is my code: ###delta is the data fit<-arima(delta,order=c(2,,0,1)) fit.res <-

Hello, I have a rather complex problem... I will have to explain everything in detail because I cannot solve it by myself...i just ran out of ideas. So here is what I want to do: I take quotes of two indices - S&P500 and DJ. And my first aim is to estimate coefficients of the DCC-GARCH model for them. This is how I do it: library(tseries) p1 = get.hist.quote(instrument =

Dear list members, I am trying to estimate parameters of the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. I have one additional dummy variable for the AR(1) part. First I wanted to do it using garchFit function (everything would be then estimated in one step) however in the fGarch library I didn't find a way to include an additional variable. That would be the formula but, as said, I think it is impossible to add

Hello all, I am trying to use the "garchFit" function in the fSeries Package to fit a Garch(1,1) Model with t distribution. I am using the following codes. fit <- garchFit(~garch(1,1),data,cond.dist="dstd") fitted(fit) I was expecting the fitted(fit) would return the fitted volatility, but the result turns out to be a series of repeated same value. I tried to change the